It all comes down to this

Here we are...again. The Sox have their backs against the wall, and they need to win three in a row to move on to the World Series. They were successful in this situation twice in the last four seasons, so many fans have reason to be optimistic.

But most aren't so glass half full today. The fact is, the Rays have clearly been the better team for the past four games. They've outpitched and outhit the Red Sox at the Trop and the Fens. They pulled out a clutch extra-inning win, and they showed their strength by blowing out two games in Fenway.

Last year the Red Sox lost an extra inning game two to Cleveland, extremely similar to this year's loss. Only games three and four weren't anything like the beatdowns delivered by the Rays in this postseason. Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook frustrated the Boston hitters, but you just got the feeling that they were all due to break out. When it all came together, I was surprised, but not totally shocked.

You just can't say the same thing about this team. They're banged up, with Lowell out, and Ortiz and Drew clearly struggling. Ellsbury has been the opposite of a spark plug, and Sean Casey and Mike Timlin are basically dead roster spots at this point. Josh Beckett is showing signs of mortality as the injuries from the long season seem to have caught up to him at the worst time. And Jon Lester had his first slipup of the postseason in game three and he may not get a chance to redeem himself.

The only players who the Red Sox can count on are Dustin Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon. Unfortunately, Pedroia is more of a run scorer than a run producer - which isn't too helpful if the guys behind you are struggling - and Papelbon can't change games when his team is down 17 runs before the third inning.

Is it over yet? Not by a long shot. I learned long ago that you can count out the Red Sox at your own risk. But the odds are strongly against this team winning the World Series, and unlike in 2007, I would be completely shocked if they got there.