AL MVP

This is easily the toughest award to give out this year. There were so many gimmes (see: AL Cy Young), but the AL MVP race has three or four legitimate candidates. One has single-handedly carried an offense through a playoff race. Another has been the catalyst for an offense that gave away one of its best boppers. The third had to replace that bopper - and somehow did replace him - in the cleanup spot. And you could even go so far as adding a fourth candidate, whose injury may lead to his team collapsing down the stretch.

So, without further ado, I give you my prediction with no confidence at all that it will come true.

Winner: Dustin Pedroia

It's not about the numbers with Pedroia, because they might not be good enough. Sure, he finished second in the batting race (unless Joe Maurer plays in a one-game playoff and tanks), tied for the league-lead in hits, hit 17 HRs and 54 doubles, scored 118 runs and even stole 20 bases, but some will argue that his numbers still fall short of Justin Morneau's production.

We're talking about value here, and Pedroia has been all about that ever since he made his Major League debut. At 5-9 (yeah right) and 180 lbs. (soaking wet), Pedroia has always made the most of his physical abilities. But the thing is, he managed to do everything for the Red Sox this year: he hit leadoff when Ellsbury struggled. He hit cleanup when injuries and trades decimated the middle of the Boston lineup (and went 12-20 with a 1.222 slugging percentage). He stole 20 bases (and was only caught once) even though Kevin Youkilis once contended that Pedroia was the slowest player on the team. He hit 17 home runs even though there are 12-year-olds who tower over him. He played gold-glove caliber defense even though all the scouts talked about his lack of range in the minors.

His best month was in August, when the Red Sox really needed him. Ortiz was hurting, Ramirez was gone, Drew and Lowell were on the shelf, and Pedroia just continued to rake. People talk about September being the month to peak because you can carry your team into the playoffs, but without Pedroia's hot streak in August, the Red Sox would not have been in the race at all.

Above all, he led the Red Sox. Jason Varitek has gone so far as saying he could envision a scenario where he retires and hands the C over to Pedroia. Varitek played in Boston for seven seasons before he earned that C; now he's ready to hand it over to a guy who has only been in the bigs for two years. That's value right there.

Runner up: Justin Morneau

He quietly moved up on Josh Hamilton in the RBI race, and he might pass him if the Twins wind up in a one-game playoff. Joe Maurer is great but he only hit 8 HRs, so Morneau basically carried the team with his power all year. The Twins also surged late into the playoffs (maybe), which always leads to extra votes for the star player.

Second runner up: Kevin Youkilis

Someone had to replace Manny Ramirez after the trading deadline, and much to my surprise, Kevin Youkilis actually did it. He led the Red Sox and finished third in the AL in RBI with 118. He had an even better on base percentage than Pedroia and he managed to protect Ortiz in the lineup. He also played third base in Mike Lowell's absence and carried the lineup for long stretches.

Third runner up: Carlos Quentin

A month ago I picked him as the MVP. He likely could have won the award with a strong September, but injuries ended his season early. But his absence from the lineup actually made his case for MVP stronger, as the White Sox may have choked away their chance at the postseason without him.