A Patriotic Day

It's the most important political day in the last couple decades ... so let's talk some sports.

I know (thanks Angry Craig) I've been neglecting the blog a little bit. I could make some excuses, but I should just play like a champion.

So here we go:

It's a coulpe days late, but let's discuss what happened to the Patriots this weekend. When it comes down to it, one play cost New England the game: when David Thomas made the official bonehead move of the 2008 Patriots season and earned a personal foul flag on third and inches on the outskirts of field goal range. He deserves the most blame for the loss to the Colts, but he's not the only one.

Let me make this clear: Bill Belichick is one of the greatest football coaches of all time. He has been phenomenal guiding the Patriots to three Super Bowls, but you know what? He's human, and he had a bad game Sunday night.

Three coaching decisions stand out as being very costly on Sunday.

1. The challenge of the 12 men on the field call - It wasn't bad because he got it wrong. The decision to challenge it at all was extremely questionable because the Pats didn't stand to gain a lot and they ended up risking (and losing) a second-half timeout. That's a call you make to get a key first down in the first half or in the closing minutes of a game. You don't do it on first and 10 in the third quarter.

2. The timeout before kicking the go-ahead field goal - Belichick was on "The Big Show" yesterday explaining this decision. He said he thought it was fourth and inches and turned out to be closer to fourth and a yard. The problem with this excuse is that if it was that close, he could have asked for a measurement to have a better view and to think about the decision without having to waste a timeout. This was an airhead move by a coach who always seems to make the right decisions in crunch time.

3. The shovel pass on third down on the final drive - This is a play that may have worked with Tom Brady as quarterback because the defense would be defending the deep ball. With Cassel at quarterback, defenses have to expect trickery on third and long, so trying to slip a fast one by the Colts defense just seemed foolish. Sometimes you just have to stop thinking too hard and let it fly.

No one is saying Bill Belichick should be fired over these decisions, but if you listen to Boston sports radio, it seems like it's blasphemy to every criticise the man. He messed up on Sunday, and he should be called out on it. Don't fool yourself, Belichick has messed up before (Super Bowl XLII) and he'll mess up again. He's a great coach, but he's not God.

The morning (afternoon) after

I know I've been slacking off a little on the blog lately, so expect two action-packed posts today (no promises though). There has been a lot of neglect on the baseball front (explanation later today), but let's attack this tackle football game everyone seems so fond of first.

Some quick observations from yesterday's action:

Tom Brady should be named MVP again
Watching Matt Cassel play quarterback for the Patriots makes me realize just how great Tom Brady really is. We have come to expect certain throws and plays to be made, and Cassel just can't seem to get them done. I'm not surprised he can't hit on the deep ball, but what really makes me miss Tom is the difference in accuracy on the short ones. This is going to be a long season.

Randy Moss is showing signs of the old Randy
Key moment: on the first drive of the game, Randy Moss broke free down the right sideline and should have been wide open for an easy touchdown pass. Matt Cassel didn't put enough juice on the pass and Moss had to slow up. The problem: he still could have caught the ball, but he made absolutely no effort to do so, letting it glance off his fingertips (which were about waist high). Sure, if Brady is there, the ball is waiting in the end zone for him to go get it, but if Tom underthrew the pass, odds are Moss would have jumped up and bailed him out.

Speeding Bullitt
Is there a cooler name for an NFL safety than Melvin Bullitt? OK the whole Melvin thing hurts his case, but the way Bullitt cuts through the offense and sticks ball carriers, he's living up to his name.

Whacky Brett
Apparently it's funny when Brett Favre doesn't know the audibles and has to waste a fourth-quarter timeout in a six-point game (at the time). The announcers would have ripped Ryan Fitzpatrick as being inexperienced if he did the same thing, but Brett's just "having a good time out there."

Parity returns
In 2002, parity was the buzzword of the year. Almost every team was in the hunt going into the final two weeks of the season, and there was no clear-cut Super Bowl favorite. Pundits mused that there would never be an NFL dynasty again. Cut to 2003-04 Patriots repeat champions, and parity disappeared. But in case you haven't noticed, every division is virtually up for grabs at this early part of the season. The Giants are the class of the league, but they play in the toughest division in football, so if they lost 3/4 it wouldn't surprise anyone.

The morning after

OK, so it's not really the morning anymore, but it's still the day after week 2 of the NFL season. No doom and gloom from Patriots fans this week (thank God), just some recapping of the action from an exciting NFL Sunday.

Comebacks: Washington over New Orleans, Carolina over Chicago, Buffalo over Jacksonville, Indy over Minny, San Fran over Seattle and Denver over SD. What a crazy weekend? It was easy to park it in front of the TV all day and not lose interest for a second.

Jay Cutler: Man, this guy goes up and down like a pogo stick. One minute he's the next Joe Montana, the next minute he's the next Ryan Leaf. If the Broncos lost on Sunday, the league may have had to seriously investigate him for point shaving. Twice, the Broncos were inside the five in the waning minutes against San Diego. Once, he threw the worst pass I have ever seen for an interception. And the other time he let the ball slip out of his hands on another attempt that should have been ruled a fumble, then it was ruled a fumble, but somehow (thanks crazy NFL rules like the tuck rule) the Broncos got to keep the ball. My head hurts. Then he threw the game-tying touchdown and game-winning two-point conversion. What's with this guy?

Jets: So you finally have a chance to beat the Patriots, without the reigning MVP on the other side, at home, with a QB that hasn't started since Clinton was in office (against 17-year-olds) and you put up 10 points??? That's rough. If they couldn't win Sunday, does anyone really think they can win in Foxborough when Cassel has a few more games under his belt?

Random thoughts: Peyton Manning will pull a Tom Brady (2005) and carry his team to the playoffs on his shoulders. The Panthers are for real (even without Steve Smith). So are the Bills. The Vikings will go nowhere with Tavaris Jackson at the helm. USC would be favored to win the NFC West. San Diego got screwed in Denver, but the Bolts still aren't good enough to win the AFC. My Rams 7-9 pick isn't looking so hot anymore. Cleveland may have been overrated, but don't count them out just yet.

New Pats prediction: 10-6. Call me impulsive, but they can win with Cassel. They probably won't win the Super Bowl, but who is better in the AFC East?

Clutch

Quick note as we head into the beginning of Pats/Jets 2008: How clutch is Adam Vinatieri? I mean he's not Mr. Automatic like he was in his prime in NE, but he never wilts under pressure. Today he missed a 30-yarder in the fourth quarter, but came out to boot the winner from 47 yards with less than 10 seconds on the clock. For my money, with the game on the line, I still want Vinatieri taking the kick. He is the all-time greatest.

The other side: Angry Craig previews the Jets

Here we are for the second week of the NFL season.  The Jets will be opening up at home against the Patriots for the third year in a row.  The Patriots have gotten the better of the Jets the past two times.  The Jets are hoping that the third time's a charm to get a win.  That charm may have been Bernard Pollard, who, as you all know, knocked Tom Brady out for the season.  I won't say this is a must win for either team because it is too early in the season (and both have very favorable schedules down the road), but it is a big game for the confidence of the players on both sides.

The Patriots are coming off an impressive victory against the Chiefs.  Matt Cassel was very efficient coming in for the injured Brady, which included a 98-yard drive capped off with a touchdown to Randy Moss.  The question now is, will there be any change in the offensive game plans now that Matt Cassel is running the show.  I think that the Patriots will run the ball more since they are really deep at the running back position with Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan, and getting Kevin Faulk back from suspension.  These guys have the ability to carry the offense and sustain drives, which will ease in Cassel in his first start since high school.

Players and coaches from the Jets have been saying that the Patriots are still the team to beat in the AFC East.  They still might be, but one thing is for sure, the Jets have to be excited that there really is an opportunity for them to take over the division this year.  The Jets defense was impressive last week holding the Dolphins to a total of 49 yards rushing.  The defense also recorded four sacks and got plenty of pressure on Chad Pennington.  With that being said, the Jets will have to get pressure on Cassel and force him to make bad throws.

The Jets haven't won the division since 2002, and this Sunday could be their real first step toward winning the division.

Prediction:  Jets 23, Pats 17

Super Bowl Pick

Did you think I left this part out? I wouldn't miss it for the world.

So to recap, I picked the Patriots to win the AFC with the Panthers taking the senior circuit (NFC). Both these teams depend on their quarterbacks staying healthy in 2008, so it's possible each could finish with horrible records if Brady or Delhomme go down for extended periods of time.

And I know I've said a few critical things of the Patriots this preseason (God forbid I say anything bad about them), but I'm going with New England to win it all.

Why? Because everyone's talking about how they're going to slip. Everyone's talking about how they choked away the Super Bowl. For the first time in year's the Pats have a legitimate reason to have a chip on their shoulder. They've been putting a fake one up there since 2004, but it hasn't really fit well.

Now they can play the "nobody believed in us" card, and kind of mean it. And I know Brady, Bruschi, Vrabel and all the other long-time Pats love to play that role again. As soon as you doubt these guys, they show you just how good they are.

The pick: Patriots def. Panthers in rematch of Super Bowl XXXVIII - 24-17

2008 NFC predictions

Before we get to the NFC picks I want to answer a question from a reader about my thoughts on Matt Gutierrez getting cut from the Pats. I am pretty disappointed Matty Gutz didn't make the team. He showed that he could run the offense pretty well in preseason, leading the team on a few touchdown drives.

The real issue is that Matt Cassel has no right to be on an NFL team. He never played at USC, and he has rarely played in New England. When he has played, there have been few - if any - flashes of anything remotely resemlbing potential. It seemed to me that this preseason was make or break time for Cassel, and he didn't do much to make me want to see him in a Patriots uniform in September.

And now...on to the picks.

NFC East
1. Dallas (12-4) - The toughest division in the league will pose a challenge, but this team has the goods to deliver.

2. N.Y. Giants (10-6) - The G-men have a chip on their shoulder because no one is picking them to win it all this year. Hey, everyone said the Patriots were lucky in 2001, so it doesn't mean the Giants aren't good. Still, it will be tough to replace the two sacks leaders from a D-line that singlehandedly won a Super Bowl.

3. Philladelphia (9-7) - McNabb goes down in week 11. Kevin Kolb steps in and wins four of six to close out the year. McNabb comes back for the playoffs. The Eagles are promptly eliminated.

4. Washington (6-10) - Am I the only one that knows Jason Campbell is the quarterback for this team? Why is everyone picking them to do well? He's just not good enough.

NFC North
1. Minnesota (10-6) - They have a weak QB like Washington, but the Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor combo will make life easier for Tavaris Jackson. And the defense is good enough to make up for a mediocre offense.

2. Green Bay (9-7) - Aaron Rodgers will take some lumps in his first season, but he's surrounded by a team that was one play away from the Super Bowl last year. He's no Favre, but he'll be fine.

3. Detroit (6-10) - Sorry Kitna, but your team is still not getting to 10 wins. The schedule did the Lions a lot of favors to start the year in 2007; it gives no such help this year.

4. Chicago (4-12) - An aging defense (see Baltimore) that's built around guys like Urlacher playing every snap means those weaknesses will be exposed late in games. Seriously, no quarterback in free agency or the draft?

NFC South
1. Carolina (13-3) - Call me crazy, but I believe in the Panthers. Jake Delhomme was on the verge of taking a big step last year when he got derailed by Tommy John surgery. If he recovers like a baseball player (usually stronger than before), this team will be a beast.

2. New Orleans (10-6) - A healthy running game should help the Saints this year. Reggie Bush will look better with Deuce Deuce back to compliment him.

3. Tampa Bay (6-10) - Jeff Garcia is a winner, but eventually he has to get old. He's been bald for about 54 years now, so I'm saying this is the year he drops off for good.

4. Atlanta (2-14) - And with the first pick in the 2009 NFL draft...

NFC West
1. Seattle (9-7) - The best of the worst division in all of football. I think the SEC is tougher than the NFC West.

2. St. Louis (7-9) - Most of the Rams' problems last year were caused by injuries. They weren't as bad as the team that earned the second pick in the draft, and they won't be that bad again this year.

3. Arizona (6-10) - I'm not falling for the Cards this year, which means they'll probably win the Super Bowl. Odds either Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart is healthy come New Year's: 7-1.

4. San Francisco (3-13) - When T.J. O'Sullivan beats you out for a job it's safe to say you were a bust as the No. 1 draft pick Alex Smith. Too bad the Pats don't have the Niners' draft pick this year.

Playoffs
First Round - Vikings def. Eagles, Giants def. Seahawks
Second Round - Panthers def. Giants, Vikings def. Cowboys
NFC Championship - Panthers def. Vikings

2008 AFC predictions

It's go time in the NFL. So like everyone else in this media world, I will give you my fairly uneducated picks for how each team will fare this year (NFC picks to come on Thursday).

Note: This baseball season I picked the Mariners, Tigers and Padres to win their divisions this year. Whoops, hopefully football is really my sport.

AFC East

1. Patriots (13-3) - If Brady is healthy, this team will have the best record in the AFC again. If he's not, the Pats could be one of the worst. 

2. Jets (9-7) - Favre makes them a better team this year, but not good enough for the playoffs. No one had more overrated offseason acquisitions than the Jets (See Damien Woody and Calvin Pace).

3. Bills (7-9) - They're really not that bad, but they are also significantly worse than the Patriots and probably slightly worse than the Jets. 

4. Dolphins (3-13) - Paul Pasqualoni is the best thing on this team this year. He's a head coach by 2011.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh (11-5) - This division is surprisingly soft, and the Steelers are the least soft of the bunch.

2. Cleveland (10-6) - This is the year the Browns finally make the playoffs. Romeo knows what he's doing.

3. Cincinnati (7-9) - I love Ocho Cinco, but this year his act might go over the line and the Bengals don't have enough firepower on defense.

4. Baltimore (4-12) - The defense is led by aging players and they don't have a legitimate quarterback. It's going to be a long season.

AFC South

1. Indy (13-3) - Manning's health is a concern, but he'll be fine and so will the Colts.

2. Jacksonville (11-5) - They're the trendy pick this year, and they will be solid with Garrard's improvement. The Jags aren't good enough to overtake the Colts though.

3. Houston (9-7) - The Texans will come so close to the playoffs this year with a healthy Matt Schaub and an improved team overall. Next year's the year for them.

4. Tennessee (6-10) - Vince Young wants to become a star, but he needs more of a supporting class. This team will be hurt by playing in the toughest AFC division.

AFC West

1. San Diego (12-4) - Another trendy pick for 2008. The love affair is a little much, like it was last year, but Phillip Rivers is good enough to take them deep in the playoffs.

2. Broncos (7-9) - Seven wins is only possible for the Broncos because they play the Chiefs and Raiders twice. They're not seven-wins good, but the rest of the teams in the west are that bad.

3. Chiefs (5-11) - I used to love Brodie Croyle, but it's time to jump off his bandwaggon.

4. Raiders (4-12) - Jamarcus Russel is really a rookie this year, and he will face some growing pains. The Raiders will struggle with him and their defense won't bail them out.

Playoffs

Round 1 - Chargers def. Browns, Jaguars def. Steelers

Round 2 - Patriots def. Jaguars, Colts def. Chargers

AFC Champ - Patriots def. Colts

I know these playoffs resemble last season's a lot, but come on, I picked the Browns to be in the playoffs. Gimme a break here.

Ocho Cinco

Quick note before I run to work...Chad Johnson is apparently legally changing his name to Ocho Cinco.

This guy is awesome. Most of the time his antics are fun and playful (this offseason where he ripped his team and begged to be traded were the exception). Everyone says they want players who just hand the ball to the referee after a touchdown, but for me, I want the guy that has fun on the field. 

Football is a game, so it is supposed to be fun. As long as your celebrations and banter don't detract from the team, I say keep it up. I can't wait to see Cinco on the back of his jersey as he runs into the endzone this year.

Hats off to Tippett

It's been a long time in the making, but one of pro football's most dominant defensive players of his era finally got the honor he deserved tonight. Andre Tippett, who didn't become a finalist for the Hall of Fame until 2007, was at long last inducted into the Hall 14 years after playing his last game with the New England Patriots.

Tippett amassed incredible statistics with a mostly terrible Patriots franchise. In 1984 and 1985, Tippett became the first, and only, linebacker in the history of the game to rack up 35 sacks in two seasons combined. His 18.5 sacks in '84 still stands as a team record, as do his 100 career sacks.

He was selected defensive player of the year in '85, and he earned positions on four consecutive pro bowls. 

Bill Belichick even said he showed his great Giants linebackers of the '80s film of Tippett to learn how to improve. Now that's praise coming from the man who coached some of the best players at all time at the position.

Tippett joins John Hannah as the only two Patriots to play their entire career with the team and be enshrined in the Hall. 

He was truly a dominant player, and he absolutely deserved the honor. The only problem was that it took too long.