Thursday, July 31, 2008

Manny being one of the best players in Red Sox history

Well, the deal is done now. I don't like it, but it's time to just accept it and move on.
As for Manny, I know a lot of people will remember how he shot his way out of town. They'll remember how he whined and moaned for eight years. They'll remember him for being a slacker and for being a goofball on the field.

Sure, I'll remember those bad moments too. How can I forget him taking a bathroom break in the wall or cutting off Johnny Damon's throw in center field (the best catch he made in eight seasons). 

But I'm really going to remember him as one of the best LF in club history. There's Teddy Ballgame, Yaz and Manny as the class of LF in Red Sox history. No one else belongs in that group.

I'm going to remember the two World Series Manny was instrumental in bringing to this town. He was the best player on the team in the 2004 regular season, and he won the '04 WS MVP. Then in 2007, Manny followed a subpar season (for him) with a phenomenal postseason, carrying the Red Sox offense at times. He did some great things with Boston, from hitting 500 HRs to high fiving a fan while turning a double play. There was never a dull moment when Manny was on the field.

He was fun to watch, and he was great. I'll remember that most of all. And I will miss him. And eventually, Red Sox Nation will miss him as well.

For now, let's enjoy the good old times as we prepare for a new era in Red Sox baseball.










The Trade

The pieces are finally falling into place here with the Manny Ramirez deal. According to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo and Gordon Edes, the Red Sox will send Ramirez to the Dodgers, Craig Hanson and Brandon Moss will be shipped to Pittsburgh, and the Red Sox will get Jason Bay.

My initial reaction is that the Red Sox gave up a lot just to get rid of Manny. Two teams got better here, and neither was from Boston.

The Dodgers essentially got a premier power hitter (free of charge considering the Sox have agreed to pay the balance of his 2008 contract) for a guy who's 25 (Andy LaRoche), but has been a non factor in 62 big league games and a 21-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery (Bryan Morris). They are two promising young players, but hardly a high price to pay for Ramirez.

The Pirates really come out on top today, receiving the two prospects from the Dodgers and Moss and Hanson from Boston. While Moss didn't have much a place in Boston to play, he could succeed in the NL with Pittsburgh. He has David Murphy written all over him (i.e. a solid player who never becomes a star). Craig Hanson has always shown potential, so who the hell knows what he'll become when he faces NL lineups for the first time. He could develop into something nice, or do nothing at all.

In the end, the Red Sox gave up three players from their Major League lineup and only got one in return. On top of that, they traded a LF for a lesser LF. So they are worse at LF tomorrow, and they are without one more relief pitcher and a left-handed bat off the bench.

The Red Sox also were unable to address their biggest need going into the deadline, bullpen help. In fact, they made the bullpen more shorthanded. So how is this team better tomorrow than they were yesterday? I just don't see it.

Manny for Bay

As most of you know by now, the Red Sox are considering a deal that would send Manny Ramirez to Florida, and would essentially bring Jason Bay to Boston to fill Ramirez' void in the cleanup spot.

I have been a Manny supporter from day one. I think his presence and production in the lineup are irreplaceable during the season. If he is traded by 4 p.m. today, I will miss him, and I believe the Red Sox will miss him as well.

That being said, this is the best deal for the Red Sox I have heard to date involving Ramirez. Boston has tried to trade Ramirez every year since 2003, and it has never been able to work out a deal for anything remotely close to $0.90 per dollar. 

If the Sox are able to get Jason Bay in return for Manny, they will be able to replace a good portion of his production. The numbers are similar: Ramirez - .299, 20 HR, 68 RBI. Bay - .282, 22 HR, 64 RBI. The plan will be for Bay to hit cleanup, and looking at those stats it appears he will be able to replace Ramirez' production.

There are, however, two problems with this deal.

1. We do not know how Bay will deal with the pressure of playing in Boston. It's hard to guarantee he will put up similar numbers in this difficult market. Playing in Pittsburgh and Boston are totally different animals. Maybe he will do even better in Boston than he did in Pa., but it's a big question mark that has to be answered either way.

2. Bay won't have the presence Ramirez has in the Red Sox lineup. He's a fine player, someone who can hit a few home runs and drive in some runs in the right situations. Maybe he will do even better now that he will have a more formidable lineup around him. But he hardly strikes fear into pitchers like Ramirez does. Part of what makes the Manny/Ortiz combo so great is the fact that pitchers have to choose who to pitch to. My argument is that Bay will not convince pitchers to face Ortiz.

The thing is, if ownership has decided that Ramirez is such a problem in the clubhouse that a deal absolutely must be done, than this is the best deal they will be able to get. I would still prefer no deal at all involving Ramirez, but if it is really that bad (and I am not in the locker room so I cannot say either way), they should pull the trigger on Bay, because it won't get any better than this.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Why Manny's being Manny this year

For eight years, Manny Ramirez has had all the bargaining power. He signed an eight-year $160 million dollar deal that was guaranteed through 2008. If he didn't want to play, the Red Sox could trade him, or release him or do whatever. But it didn't matter, because Manny was still going to get paid.

Things are different this season. Manny has no bargaining power. 

He doesn't want the Red Sox to pick up his option for next season, because he will have to continue to work hard to earn the next option on his contract. Then he will have to keep working hard to earn his new contract when that's all said and done. Basically, Manny could be facing three consecutive contract years. That's a lot of pressure, and a lot of work for a guy who hasn't had to deal with this for eight years.

So what's the solution? Surprisingly there may actually be one. Even more surprisingly, Manny seems to have figured it out.

First, I must point out that Manny signed on to be represented by Scott Boras. Boras did not negotiate the eight-year deal with the Red Sox, or the subsequent club options. Therefore, he does not see a dime from Manny's contract until he is freed from the Red Sox. This is important.

According to Peter Gammons, Ramirez thinks he can get a four-year deal on the open market worth up to $100 million. However ridiculous this may seem for a 36-year-old with declining skills, it is clearly what Boras has indicated is possible for Manny.

However, Manny can only get this deal if he is a free agent. And he can only get this deal if he shows his skills haven't diminished. It seems like a paradox, but it doesn't have to be.

If Manny causes a disturbance in the Red Sox clubhouse, by complaining about anything and everything, he is counting on the club getting fed up with his act. If management gets so fed up with his act that they decide to let him go at the end of the season, he can be free without his numbers declining. 

This would lead to a perfect storm for Manny to cash in this offseason. 

Believe it or not, Manny's not dumb. He's actually making a very savvy business decision by causing a stink this year. 

Maybe I'm giving him too much credit. But maybe, just maybe, Manny is being stupid like a fox.

The rich just got richer

This time it's not the Red Sox or Yankees who got richer. It's the best team in the Majors this year that just landed the big prize: Mark Texiera.

Sources are reporting to ESPN.com that Texiera is heading to the Angels in exchange for Casey Kotchman and a AA pitcher. This means the team that only lacks a power hitter to support Vlad Guerrero just got exactly what it needed.

This solidifies Los Angeles position as the class of the American League and makes the the clear cut favorite right now to win the World Series. They have the starting pitching with Joe Saunders (13-5, 3.10 ERA), Ervin Santana (11-5, 3.57 ERA) and John Lackey (8-2, 3.02 ERA). They have the bullpen arms with K-Rod looking to break the saves record (44 and counting so far).

They always had good hitters, but they never had the pop. Texiera has more HRs and RBI than anyone in the Angels lineup this year. Try pitching around Vlad with Mark Texiera behind him and see what happens.

To me, this is a bigger splash than the Sabathia or Harden deals, simply because the Angels were one piece away from being a championship team, and they got that piece today.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick breaks down the options

Crasnick did a crack job breaking down what the Red Sox can do with Manny going forward this season. He lists the possible scenarios and comes to this conclusion.

"...A trade seems unlikely for two reasons: The Red Sox need Ramirez's bat if they want to try to win in 2008. And if Manny is having trouble staying focused amid the financial uncertainty in Boston, wouldn't that be just as big an issue in his next destination? Potential suitors are probably smart enough to realize that.

As for Option 2, anything is possible. But given the harsh rhetoric making the rounds, Charlie Sheen and Denise Richards probably stand a better chance of getting back together than the Sox and Manny do of perpetuating their union.

Which leads us to the most likely course of action: The Red Sox keep Ramirez, hope he's gripped by a sudden fit of maturity over the next two months and realizes it's in his best interests to play hard and produce. Then the Sox decline his option and: a) funnel some of that $20 million into Pat Burrell, Jermaine Dye or another free agent; or b) dig into their deep well of prospects and make a trade. We always hear how ''creative'' Theo Epstein and his front office team are. This is a great opportunity to prove it..."

Crasnick went on to discuss Mannygate with his readers. Check it out here.


This week's lineup

This is a new feature for the lineup card, which should be a standard from now on. Every week we'll give you a list of nine questions we hope can be answered going forward. 

The managers have just convened, and here's the lineup for this week; the special trade deadline edition.

1. Who's out there for bullpen help? 
Leading off, we must address the bullpen, the biggest concern for the rest of the season. Justin Masterson might turn into a reliable arm down the road, but the Sox are going to need to go outside the organization to address the need. Houston's Doug Brocail has come up in conversations today.

2. Will Manny stay or go?
Everyone is tired of his act off the field, but no one is tired of his production on the field. No. 24 hit his 20th HR of the year for the 14th consecutive season last night. If he goes, there will be a serious void to fill in the lineup, so Boston better get some serious talent back in return.

3. Will Big Papi stay healthy all year?
Wrist injuries are always scary, especially for a guy who gets paid just to hit the ball. The bad news is the injury will be there all season, all the Sox can do is manage it. The good news is, it's his left wrist that's hurt, which is not the hand he gets his power from. 

4. Who will hit cleanup?
If Manny's not the cleanup hitter by week's end, Theo and Co. better find a viable replacement from outside the organization to fill his spot in the lineup. If not, Ortiz will be the next Vlad Guerrero from 2004-2007; a great player who gets pitched around in every big situation. Is it Mark Texiera or Matt Holliday? It better not be Coco Crisp.

5. Which prospects can be used as bait?
All the teams will be asking for guys like Masterson and Clay Buchholz, but Boston is unlikely to move players who are essential to their Major League club. Michael Bowden (SP) is an attractive chip, along with Lars Anderson (1B), Ryan Callish (OF), Daniel Bard (SP) and Jason Place (OF).

6. Can Bowden help the big club in 2008?
If he doesn't go anywhere in a trade, and the Red Sox fail to pick up another bullpen arm, Bowden could be an answer. It's risky to pin high hopes on a prospect, but Bowden has had success in Portland (9-4, 2.33 ERA) and now Pawtucket (0-2, 3.60 ERA). 

7. Will the Sox add a catcher?
I know his leadership is invaluable, but his offense has been nonexistent this year. At 36, he's not the same player he was a few years ago, and there's no legitimate alternative to him behind the plate. Kevin Cash is valuable to the team as Tim Wakefield's catcher, which makes it less likely they will address their catching needs at the deadline.

8. Is Jed Lowrie good enough to play SS every day?
He's going to hit better than Julio Lugo (like that's hard), and considering Lugo's made 16 errors already this season, he will probably field just as well if not better. His play could convince the Sox not to make a panic move and overpay for a SS (see Miguel Tejada).

9. Is Coco going anywhere?
He's been a valuable part of the team this year. The Ortiz injury and subsequent Manny "injuries" meant the Sox needed another OF, and Crisp happily took the playing time. But now that Ortiz is back, and Brandon Moss is healthy as a potential fourth OF, the time might be now for a move.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Names to consider

The Rockies are apparently asking for Clay Buchholz in exchange for Brian Fuentes (did Theo counter with Kyle Snyder for Matt Holliday as a screw you to Colorado?), so the price tag for high-profile relievers is clearly going to be way too high this year.

The Red Sox will make a move before the trading deadline, and it will be for a relief pitcher, but I'm willing to bet it won't be a traditional big name. There are some guys out there worth taking a chance on that won't cost a the proverbial arm (Michael Bowden) and a leg (Jed Lowrie).

1. Ron Mahay: The 37-year-old has put up an ERA under 3.00 over the last two seasons. You probably didn't even know who he was last year, considering he pitched for Texas and Atlanta. You most likely didn't know he has a 1.81 ERA with 42 Ks and 21 BBs this year for the Royals. With his age, and $4 million due to him next season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see KC look to dump him at the deadline. That's their style, and the Sox could use a dependable veteran to go with all the young guns with potential in the pen now.

2. Rafael Betancourt: I know, he's been awful this year (5.77 ERA). That's exactly why the price tag will be so low. The Indians will be happy just to find someone willing to take some of the $3.5 million owed to Betancourt over the next year and a half. Just think, he's only a year removed from a 1.48 ERA in 2007, and if he could even slightly return to that form, he could be a valuable asset for the Sox in the stretch run at a minimal cost. It's a low risk with potential for a high reward scenario.

3. Eddie Guardado: His price tag may be the highest of the three because of his experience as both a closer and setup guy. Unlike Eric Gagne, he has excelled as a setup man, leading the league with 22 holds. At 37, he's not the dominant pitcher he once was, but he's no Craig Hansen either.

Batting cleanup

Sure, we're all sick of Manny's off-field antics. There's no excuse for his behavior this week (from refusing to play, to publicly daring the Red Sox to trade him), but the alternative must be considered.

If the Red Sox trade Manny, who will replace him in the cleanup slot?

First, let's look within, if Manny is traded for something other than a legitimate cleanup hitter.

1. Kevin Youkilis: Youk has 30 ABs in the cleanup spot this year and is .267 with 1 HR and 5 RBI. He's having a great year, but does a guy who's never cracked more than 17 HRs (his total this year so far) or 83 RBI really strike fear in opposing pitchers?

2. Mike Lowell: The wily veteran had his best season last year at age 33 with 21 HR and 120 RBI. He's not quite on the same pace this year (13 HR, 63 RBI), but he's hardly in a rapid decline. Still, don't expect much more than 20 HRs from the 34-year-old this year, or any year in the future.

3. J.D. Drew: Statistically he is having the best year of any of the potential cleanup candidates. But he's a lefty, and stacking him with Ortiz makes it easy for opposing teams to take the punch out of the heart of the lineup with a lefty pitcher. Francona has shown a reluctance to have Drew hit behind Ortiz in the past because of this.

Clearly the Sox need to go outside the organization if they hope to address their cleanup needs. Here are the best options available.

1. Matt Holliday: He's hitting .343 with 18 HR and 62 RBI for a struggling Rockies team, and he has one year left on his contract. Here's the problem: his average drops 70 points away from Coors Field and only 5 HR and 14 RBI have come away from the high altitude. Plus, he will no doubt bring a price tag that includes the Sox top prospects, meaning probably at least two of Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden and Clay Buchholz.

2. Mark Texiera: 20 HR and 78 RBI are numbers a cleanup hitter should bring to the table. He's also only 28 and has won a gold glove at 1B. The problems are, like with Holliday, he would cost a fortune in prospects. But unlike Holliday, Texiera is a rental, as he intends to hit the free agent market for more than $20 mil per year. The Sox would also have to move Youk to left field, forcing him to switch positions for the second time in his young career.

My suggestion: Don't trade Manny. 
You save all your prospects, and you save one of the best cleanup hitters in the game. He's batting .302 with 20 HR and 69 RBI. He forces pitchers to throw strikes to David Ortiz. He has 24 HRs in 95 postseason games. 

Fans are so tired with Manny's behavior they want him shipped out of town. Apparently fans in Boston have grown tired with winning as well. Because if Manny goes, so will the 2008 Red Sox.

If someone comes up with a solution I did not think of, I would love to hear it. Send all comments to brian.tahmosh@gmail.com.