...about Dustin Pedroia, and his value. I don't think contracts should play a role in the MVP debate, so I left it out of my award explanation, but here's a tidbit that you might find interesting.
Dustin Pedroia earned $457,000 for his 2008 season. That's $8,463 per double, $26,882 per home run, $22,850 per steal, $3,873 per run scored and $2,146 for every hit.
On the flip side, Andruw Jones earned $14 million (and is due $17 million next season). He was paid $454,545 per hit (just shy of Pedroia's total salary), $5 million per home run, $714,286 per run scored, $1.875 million per double and the former 20 steals guy didn't swipe a bag all year.
Just some food for thought.
Monday, September 29, 2008
AL MVP
This is easily the toughest award to give out this year. There were so many gimmes (see: AL Cy Young), but the AL MVP race has three or four legitimate candidates. One has single-handedly carried an offense through a playoff race. Another has been the catalyst for an offense that gave away one of its best boppers. The third had to replace that bopper - and somehow did replace him - in the cleanup spot. And you could even go so far as adding a fourth candidate, whose injury may lead to his team collapsing down the stretch.
So, without further ado, I give you my prediction with no confidence at all that it will come true.
Winner: Dustin Pedroia
It's not about the numbers with Pedroia, because they might not be good enough. Sure, he finished second in the batting race (unless Joe Maurer plays in a one-game playoff and tanks), tied for the league-lead in hits, hit 17 HRs and 54 doubles, scored 118 runs and even stole 20 bases, but some will argue that his numbers still fall short of Justin Morneau's production.
We're talking about value here, and Pedroia has been all about that ever since he made his Major League debut. At 5-9 (yeah right) and 180 lbs. (soaking wet), Pedroia has always made the most of his physical abilities. But the thing is, he managed to do everything for the Red Sox this year: he hit leadoff when Ellsbury struggled. He hit cleanup when injuries and trades decimated the middle of the Boston lineup (and went 12-20 with a 1.222 slugging percentage). He stole 20 bases (and was only caught once) even though Kevin Youkilis once contended that Pedroia was the slowest player on the team. He hit 17 home runs even though there are 12-year-olds who tower over him. He played gold-glove caliber defense even though all the scouts talked about his lack of range in the minors.
His best month was in August, when the Red Sox really needed him. Ortiz was hurting, Ramirez was gone, Drew and Lowell were on the shelf, and Pedroia just continued to rake. People talk about September being the month to peak because you can carry your team into the playoffs, but without Pedroia's hot streak in August, the Red Sox would not have been in the race at all.
Above all, he led the Red Sox. Jason Varitek has gone so far as saying he could envision a scenario where he retires and hands the C over to Pedroia. Varitek played in Boston for seven seasons before he earned that C; now he's ready to hand it over to a guy who has only been in the bigs for two years. That's value right there.
Runner up: Justin Morneau
He quietly moved up on Josh Hamilton in the RBI race, and he might pass him if the Twins wind up in a one-game playoff. Joe Maurer is great but he only hit 8 HRs, so Morneau basically carried the team with his power all year. The Twins also surged late into the playoffs (maybe), which always leads to extra votes for the star player.
Second runner up: Kevin Youkilis
Someone had to replace Manny Ramirez after the trading deadline, and much to my surprise, Kevin Youkilis actually did it. He led the Red Sox and finished third in the AL in RBI with 118. He had an even better on base percentage than Pedroia and he managed to protect Ortiz in the lineup. He also played third base in Mike Lowell's absence and carried the lineup for long stretches.
Third runner up: Carlos Quentin
A month ago I picked him as the MVP. He likely could have won the award with a strong September, but injuries ended his season early. But his absence from the lineup actually made his case for MVP stronger, as the White Sox may have choked away their chance at the postseason without him.
So, without further ado, I give you my prediction with no confidence at all that it will come true.
Winner: Dustin Pedroia
It's not about the numbers with Pedroia, because they might not be good enough. Sure, he finished second in the batting race (unless Joe Maurer plays in a one-game playoff and tanks), tied for the league-lead in hits, hit 17 HRs and 54 doubles, scored 118 runs and even stole 20 bases, but some will argue that his numbers still fall short of Justin Morneau's production.
We're talking about value here, and Pedroia has been all about that ever since he made his Major League debut. At 5-9 (yeah right) and 180 lbs. (soaking wet), Pedroia has always made the most of his physical abilities. But the thing is, he managed to do everything for the Red Sox this year: he hit leadoff when Ellsbury struggled. He hit cleanup when injuries and trades decimated the middle of the Boston lineup (and went 12-20 with a 1.222 slugging percentage). He stole 20 bases (and was only caught once) even though Kevin Youkilis once contended that Pedroia was the slowest player on the team. He hit 17 home runs even though there are 12-year-olds who tower over him. He played gold-glove caliber defense even though all the scouts talked about his lack of range in the minors.
His best month was in August, when the Red Sox really needed him. Ortiz was hurting, Ramirez was gone, Drew and Lowell were on the shelf, and Pedroia just continued to rake. People talk about September being the month to peak because you can carry your team into the playoffs, but without Pedroia's hot streak in August, the Red Sox would not have been in the race at all.
Above all, he led the Red Sox. Jason Varitek has gone so far as saying he could envision a scenario where he retires and hands the C over to Pedroia. Varitek played in Boston for seven seasons before he earned that C; now he's ready to hand it over to a guy who has only been in the bigs for two years. That's value right there.
Runner up: Justin Morneau
He quietly moved up on Josh Hamilton in the RBI race, and he might pass him if the Twins wind up in a one-game playoff. Joe Maurer is great but he only hit 8 HRs, so Morneau basically carried the team with his power all year. The Twins also surged late into the playoffs (maybe), which always leads to extra votes for the star player.
Second runner up: Kevin Youkilis
Someone had to replace Manny Ramirez after the trading deadline, and much to my surprise, Kevin Youkilis actually did it. He led the Red Sox and finished third in the AL in RBI with 118. He had an even better on base percentage than Pedroia and he managed to protect Ortiz in the lineup. He also played third base in Mike Lowell's absence and carried the lineup for long stretches.
Third runner up: Carlos Quentin
A month ago I picked him as the MVP. He likely could have won the award with a strong September, but injuries ended his season early. But his absence from the lineup actually made his case for MVP stronger, as the White Sox may have choked away their chance at the postseason without him.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
NL MVP
We always save the MVP for last here at the card because so much depends on where teams finish in the standings and how those key players carry them down the stretch. So now that we're here on the final day of the season, it's time to dish out the big hardware.
Winner: Albert Pujols
So after all that talk about team play and winning down the stretch, I'm giving the award to a guy who plays for a fourth-place team in his division. Well, there are two types of MVPs: the guy whose play carries his team into the playoffs, and the guy who has one of those epic seasons. In case you haven't noticed, Pujols is having one of those years.
He's batting .356 with a .461 OBP and a Major League best .651 slugging percentage. He's hit 37 HRs and driven in 115 runs. He's hit an additional 43 doubles and scored 100 runs. He's second in the National League with 103 walks and he leads the Majors with 33 intentional walks (Carlos Delgado is in second place with 19). Plus Pujols has played gold-glove caliber first base all season.
There's no weakness in Pujols' game. He hits for power, average and run production. He comes through in the clutch all the time for the Cardinals, and the only real question is why opposing teams EVER decide to pitch to him. Sure he won't be playing in October, but without Pujols, the Cards probably would be 30 games out of the division this year.
The scary part is, this isn't even Pujols' best season in his career. He hit .359 with 43 HRs, 124 RBI, 137 runs scored, and a .667 slugging percentage in 2003. Oh, and he didn't win the MVP that year because a certain chemically-enhanced slugger with an oversized ego (and head) took home the prize.
Runner up - Ryan Howard
The knock on Howard is that he's hitting .25o. But Carlos Delgado is only hitting .271, and the rest of Howard's numbers dwarf the Mets' first baseman's. For my money, I don't particularly care that Howard strikes out or that he doesn't hit enough singles. He doesn't get paid to hit singles, he gets the big bucks to mash the ball out of the yard. And that's all Howard has done, hitting 48 HRs and driving in a league-best 146 runs. You can take your singles, the Phillies will take Howard's home runs, and the division title.
Friday, September 26, 2008
NL Cy Young Award
We're live from a famous volleyball court, which will remain nameless, with the next award winner for the 2008 MLB season. Who says I'm not dedicated to this thing. We're just minutes away from NCAA Division-I volleyball action, yet you will still get my unfiltered thoughts here at The Card.
NOTE: The identity of the arena is being kept secret to guard against my bosses having Google Alerts. They really think I work my tail off. It's amazing how dedicated I look while I research the value of Kyle Eckel to the New England Patriots. It's like a gift. It's like I can't control it.
Winner - Tim Lincecum
Bet you thought I was going with Brandon Webb for this one. Well, it wouldn't be wrong to pick Webb, it's just more right to pick Lincecum. When it comes down to the major categories (wins, strikeouts and ERA), Webb has the advantage in just the wins column. Lincecum is 17-5, Webb 22-7, but Lincecum ranks second in ERA and first in strikeouts. Lincecum's 252 strikeouts stand 46 Ks ahead of second place in the NL and are tops in the entire Major League. This is also one award where your team's lack of success may actually help you, because 17 wins for the pathetic Giants look pretty good at the end of the season (Note: 22 wins for the sub-.500 D-Backs is pretty good too).
Lincecum is truly an emerging star in the big leagues. His 5-11 170 lb. frame reminds people of Pedro Martinez in his prime, and his numbers don't hurt his cause one bit.
Runner up - Brandon Webb
Didn't you read what I just wrote? If not, go back and review. There will be an exam on all this next week, so be prepared.
NOTE: The identity of the arena is being kept secret to guard against my bosses having Google Alerts. They really think I work my tail off. It's amazing how dedicated I look while I research the value of Kyle Eckel to the New England Patriots. It's like a gift. It's like I can't control it.
Winner - Tim Lincecum
Bet you thought I was going with Brandon Webb for this one. Well, it wouldn't be wrong to pick Webb, it's just more right to pick Lincecum. When it comes down to the major categories (wins, strikeouts and ERA), Webb has the advantage in just the wins column. Lincecum is 17-5, Webb 22-7, but Lincecum ranks second in ERA and first in strikeouts. Lincecum's 252 strikeouts stand 46 Ks ahead of second place in the NL and are tops in the entire Major League. This is also one award where your team's lack of success may actually help you, because 17 wins for the pathetic Giants look pretty good at the end of the season (Note: 22 wins for the sub-.500 D-Backs is pretty good too).
Lincecum is truly an emerging star in the big leagues. His 5-11 170 lb. frame reminds people of Pedro Martinez in his prime, and his numbers don't hurt his cause one bit.
Runner up - Brandon Webb
Didn't you read what I just wrote? If not, go back and review. There will be an exam on all this next week, so be prepared.
AL Cy Young
The schedule is going out the window this weekend. Apparently I forgot to include the most important awards of all: the AL and NL MVPs. So, let's ignore my previous proclamations and play two today. You always win in the end Ernie Banks.
Winner: Cliff Lee
It's easy to play two when one of them is a rout like this one. No need to empty the bullpens today fellas; this ones under control. Cliff Lee is having one of the best seasons by a lefthanded pitcher of all time. Yes, I said it. One of the best of all time.
Just look at the numbers: First in the AL in wins (22-3), first in the AL in ERA (2.54), ninth in strikeouts (170). His .880 winning percentage is ridiculous, falling just shy of Ron Guidry's 25-3 record for highest winning percentage by a starting pitcher in MLB history. Lee's 2.54 ERA is the best by an AL Cy Young Award winner since Pedro Martinez was in his prime with a 1.74 ERA in 2000.
Bonus points go to Lee for doing all of this for a Cleveland team that is currently 79-80. Lee has personally won more than 1/4 of the games the Indians won this year. CC Sabathia couldn't do that in Cleveland and he will probably make more than $20 million on the free agent market next year.
Runner up: Roy Halladay
In any other year he would be a slam dunk. His 20-11 record gives him the second-most wins in the league and his 2.74 ERA also only trails Lee. Halladay is also third in strikeouts (206) and first in innings pitched with a remarkable 246 this year. The man is just a horse and he's everything you could want in an ace. He shows up to pitch every five days, he goes deep into games and he gives you results.
If I could pick one player to build a franchise around it would be Roy Halladay without question.
Winner: Cliff Lee
It's easy to play two when one of them is a rout like this one. No need to empty the bullpens today fellas; this ones under control. Cliff Lee is having one of the best seasons by a lefthanded pitcher of all time. Yes, I said it. One of the best of all time.
Just look at the numbers: First in the AL in wins (22-3), first in the AL in ERA (2.54), ninth in strikeouts (170). His .880 winning percentage is ridiculous, falling just shy of Ron Guidry's 25-3 record for highest winning percentage by a starting pitcher in MLB history. Lee's 2.54 ERA is the best by an AL Cy Young Award winner since Pedro Martinez was in his prime with a 1.74 ERA in 2000.
Bonus points go to Lee for doing all of this for a Cleveland team that is currently 79-80. Lee has personally won more than 1/4 of the games the Indians won this year. CC Sabathia couldn't do that in Cleveland and he will probably make more than $20 million on the free agent market next year.
Runner up: Roy Halladay
In any other year he would be a slam dunk. His 20-11 record gives him the second-most wins in the league and his 2.74 ERA also only trails Lee. Halladay is also third in strikeouts (206) and first in innings pitched with a remarkable 246 this year. The man is just a horse and he's everything you could want in an ace. He shows up to pitch every five days, he goes deep into games and he gives you results.
If I could pick one player to build a franchise around it would be Roy Halladay without question.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
NL Rolaids Reliever of the Year
This is an award I honestly hadn't put much thought into until tonight. Fortunately for me, it doesn't take much time to figure out who has been the best reliever in the NL.
Winner: Brad Lidge
Thanks for making it easy for me Brad. 40 saves in 40 chances, a 1.87 ERA (best among all relievers with at least two saves) and just two home runs allowed. Sure, he walked 34 guys so he's far from perfect, but he struck out 89 batters in 67.1 innings.
Kudos for Lidge for bouncing back after a few not so bright seasons. The 2006 campaign (following a few crushing blown saves in the '05 playoffs) looked like the end of Lidge's run as a top closer. He put up a miserable 5.28 ERA that year, and he came back with what was just a decent 2007 run with nine blown saves.
Bonus points go to Lidge for being ultra-valuable as a closer. Think of it this way, if Lidge blew just two of his 40 save opportunities, he would still have the best conversion rate in baseball, but the Phillies would not be leading the division. That's value.
Runner up: Carlos Marmol
Why? Well, it's not even worth putting another closer into this conversation because Lidge blows them all away. So let's honor the best setup man in baseball this year. Marmol blew out all relievers with 114 strikeouts in 86 innings for the Cubbies. In the last two seasons he has struck out 210 batters in 155.1 innings, and he's only getting better. The kid is 25 and has dominating stuff. He will be a real candidate for this award and maybe more in the future.
On the bus
Last night the Red Sox celebrated like they won the World Series when Alex Cora caught the final out to clinch a Wild Card playoff spot. Well, maybe it wasn't quite that dramatic, but the argument will always come up about how much you should celebrate being number four (or number two in your division if you prefer).
I would like to quote the immortal Herm Edwards, who has never been one to hide his feelings, about what it's like to get to the playoffs.
"It's like getting on the bus. Some people get on the bus and go to the back. Some people get on the bus and ride in the front. Don't matter, as long as you're on the bus. We're on the bus."
Trust me, Herm was talking about the playoffs, even though it seems like more of a Rosa Parks reference.
But the point is that one of the goals every year is to make the playoffs. You have to get there before you reach all your other team goals of winning championships. And let's not take this playoffs thing for granted over in Titletown. It is extremely hard to survive a 162-game season and make the playoffs. Just look at the Yankees and their $17 billion payroll. They are a limping example of how nothing in this league is guaranteed.
The Red Sox had their trials and tribulations even with their $16.9 billion payroll this year. Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz missed more than 40 games each. Curt Schilling was knocked out before spring training started. Dice-K missed a month and Josh Beckett missed time as well. The fact that they were even in the hunt is an accomplishment with all those issues, and they somehow made it to the playoffs. It doesn't matter if you're the 1 seed or the 4 seed, just as long as you get on the bus.
The Red Sox didn't finish the 2008 season in the playoffs as much as they survived the 2008 season. And that's all you have to do in this league. They're on the bus. Now let's hope they can drive it to the top.
I would like to quote the immortal Herm Edwards, who has never been one to hide his feelings, about what it's like to get to the playoffs.
"It's like getting on the bus. Some people get on the bus and go to the back. Some people get on the bus and ride in the front. Don't matter, as long as you're on the bus. We're on the bus."
Trust me, Herm was talking about the playoffs, even though it seems like more of a Rosa Parks reference.
But the point is that one of the goals every year is to make the playoffs. You have to get there before you reach all your other team goals of winning championships. And let's not take this playoffs thing for granted over in Titletown. It is extremely hard to survive a 162-game season and make the playoffs. Just look at the Yankees and their $17 billion payroll. They are a limping example of how nothing in this league is guaranteed.
The Red Sox had their trials and tribulations even with their $16.9 billion payroll this year. Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz missed more than 40 games each. Curt Schilling was knocked out before spring training started. Dice-K missed a month and Josh Beckett missed time as well. The fact that they were even in the hunt is an accomplishment with all those issues, and they somehow made it to the playoffs. It doesn't matter if you're the 1 seed or the 4 seed, just as long as you get on the bus.
The Red Sox didn't finish the 2008 season in the playoffs as much as they survived the 2008 season. And that's all you have to do in this league. They're on the bus. Now let's hope they can drive it to the top.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Rolaids Reliever of the Year
First, can we talk about how awesome it is that an award is named after an antacid? Seriously, the marketing on this one was genius. And Rolaids spells R-E-L-I-E-F was just such a smart slogan to link up with this award. Plus, managers that don't have a great bullpen will surely need some of those free Rolaids packs they probably get in the mail for endorsing this sponsorship.
Usually The Card does not approve of such shameless advertising, but this one works for so many reasons.
Winner - Francisco Rodriguez
I know I've bashed him in this space before as being far from a dominant closer. It's true. I'm not backing down from that statement. If you asked me who I would want right now to close a game, I would start with Mariano Rivera, then make my way down the list through Papelbon, Nathan and probably Bobby Jenks before I get to K-Rod. Joakim Soria is closing fast to make that list in the years to come.
But when it comes down to it, the award is about who had the best year, not who is the best player. Sure, K-Rod's had 68 save opportunities (and blown seven of them), but we can't penalize the guy for having chances. Alex Rodriguez had plenty of chances to drive in runs last year in the Yankees lineup, but that didn't make him any less valuable to his team's success.
It hurts me to do this, but I have to give K-Rod the award even though I think he's incredibly overrated. He set the records for saves in a season (61 and counting), and he allowed just four home runs in 66.1 innings. As good as he was this year, I will still be looking forward to the Red Sox facing him with two on in the ninth inning of a meaningful game next week.
Runner up: Mariano Rivera
Why won't this guy get old? All he did at age 38 was convert all but one save chance. He was ubelieveable and practically unhittable. I mean, he only allowed 49 runners to reach base all season in 68.1 innings so far. I hate him so much, but it's damn hard not to respect him.
Second runner up: Joakim Soria
Let me just gush over this 24-year-old phenom for a second. No one except fantasy nerds knows about him because he plays on the Royals, but his numbers are unreal. Soria allowed just 39 hits in 66.1 innings so far this year, and he converted 41-44 save opportunities (93 percent), which was an even better conversion rate than Rodriguez (90 percent) and everyone else in the league besides Rivera. If Soria can cut down on the walks (17 so far this year) he will be a real star for years to come.
Usually The Card does not approve of such shameless advertising, but this one works for so many reasons.
Winner - Francisco Rodriguez
I know I've bashed him in this space before as being far from a dominant closer. It's true. I'm not backing down from that statement. If you asked me who I would want right now to close a game, I would start with Mariano Rivera, then make my way down the list through Papelbon, Nathan and probably Bobby Jenks before I get to K-Rod. Joakim Soria is closing fast to make that list in the years to come.
But when it comes down to it, the award is about who had the best year, not who is the best player. Sure, K-Rod's had 68 save opportunities (and blown seven of them), but we can't penalize the guy for having chances. Alex Rodriguez had plenty of chances to drive in runs last year in the Yankees lineup, but that didn't make him any less valuable to his team's success.
It hurts me to do this, but I have to give K-Rod the award even though I think he's incredibly overrated. He set the records for saves in a season (61 and counting), and he allowed just four home runs in 66.1 innings. As good as he was this year, I will still be looking forward to the Red Sox facing him with two on in the ninth inning of a meaningful game next week.
Runner up: Mariano Rivera
Why won't this guy get old? All he did at age 38 was convert all but one save chance. He was ubelieveable and practically unhittable. I mean, he only allowed 49 runners to reach base all season in 68.1 innings so far. I hate him so much, but it's damn hard not to respect him.
Second runner up: Joakim Soria
Let me just gush over this 24-year-old phenom for a second. No one except fantasy nerds knows about him because he plays on the Royals, but his numbers are unreal. Soria allowed just 39 hits in 66.1 innings so far this year, and he converted 41-44 save opportunities (93 percent), which was an even better conversion rate than Rodriguez (90 percent) and everyone else in the league besides Rivera. If Soria can cut down on the walks (17 so far this year) he will be a real star for years to come.
Boo hoo
So Ellis Hobbs and the Patriots said they will not forget the fans booing at them on Sunday. Players and pundits around the country chastised Pats fans for what they deemed poor and ungrateful behavior after New England had won 21-consecutive regular season games.
As far as I'm concerned, players need to be able to take the good with the bad. When you play well you will be cheered. When you get blown out at home by the hapless Miami Dolphins, you will be booed. It's that simple.
Does history play a role in fans reactions? Absolutely. If the Pats had played hard and lost a close game, or had they been beaten by a respectable foe, then the fans most likely would not have reacted so harshly.
But what New England did on Sunday was an embarrassment. It wasn't all Matt Cassel's fault either ... Tom Brady wouldn't have been able to stop Ronnie Brown either. The Pats were flat out outplayed and outcoached, and that is something New England fans do not expect to see when they come to Gillette Stadium.
When fans pay hundreds of dollars to go to the stadium for a football game, and what they see is a total lack of effort from their team, they can and should show their displeasure.
Monday, September 22, 2008
NL Manager of the Year
Winner: Ned Yost
Just kidding. The thing is, there really isn't a very worthy candidate in the NL. In fact, Yost probably would have been the clear winner if his Brewers hadn't self destructed down the stretch this year. Joe Maddon maximized his talent in the AL, but there's no real overachieving team in the NL.
Just take a look at the playoff contenders in the NL: The Cubs are clearly the most talented team, so Lou Pinella didn't have to do much. The Mets came on strong when Jerry Manuel was hired, but they have since struggled and they are apparently trying to miss the playoffs. The Phils should be running away with their division, yet they're fighting for a spot. The Brew Crew might fall out of the playoffs after leading the Wild Card all year. The Dodgers only got going once Manny came to tinsel town, and no one from the NL West deserves any awards.
Winner: Lou Pinella
Sure, he has more talent than anyone else, but at least he's won consistently. The Cubbies were the dominant team in the NL, and in such a weak year for managers, that's good enough for me.
Runner up: Dale Sveum
Hey, if some people are willing to give Sabathia the MVP for two months, why not give Sveum Manager of the Year for two weeks. If the Brewers make the playoffs it will clearly be thanks to his managing. That's why they fired Yost right?
Sunday, September 21, 2008
A few more reasons why I love sports
Because a guy named Boo Weekley can be the leader of a golf team.
Because the best player in golf (Tiger) doesn't have to be on the best team in golf.
Because J.B. Holmes can grip it and rip it ... and actually win. He's John Daly without the cigarette.
Because a 23-year-old Anthony Kim can become one of the most popular players in the world in 18 holes.
Because that same 23-year-old can hang out with Michael Jordan and listen to how much His Airness envies his game.
Because Kenny Perry can win the biggest competition of his life at 48 - in his home state - and hug his overalls-wearing father on the golf course.
Because 40,000 fans and millions of viewers from all over the country can unite to root for one team for three days.
Because I now know who Hunter Mahan is ... and I think I love him.
Because Paul Azinger can bring Payne Stewart's family to the golf course to witness something special.
Because Stewart's family probably needed something to cheer for less than 10 years after he died tragically in a plane crash.
Because Stewart and Azinger were able to become good enough friends through golf that Azinger would become a member of the family in Stewart's absence.
Because it may not have taken nine years to win the cup if he was still here.
Because I'm smiling today, and if you're a golf fan and an American, I'm sure you are too.
But most importantly, I love sports because Tracey Stewart is smiling today.
Schedule Change: Manager of the Year AL
Here comes the first of many shakeups in the lineup here at The Card. The AL Manager of the Year award was officially clinched last night, so we might as well jump right into it.
Winner: Joe Maddon
The Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays have been such a phenomenal story in 2008. They clinched a playoff spot last night, and they will likely clinch the division before all is said and done. They jumped from worst to first, and they are a true story of why sports is so great.
Even in the A.L. East, where owners like Steinbrenner and Henry spend money like it has "Monopoly" written all over it, the (Devil) Rays were able to resurrect their team in just one season. Never has wait 'til next year meant so much. Everyone has a chance every season, and the (Devil) Rays are that proof.
Maddon has long been known as one of the great minds in baseball. He does anything to win, including playing a four-outfielder shift against David Ortiz a few years back. Most of all, his group of young and talented, but vastly inexperienced, players believe in him.
Note: Maddon gets bonus points for succeeding in a town that seemingly doesn't even know his team exists. Shame on Tampa for not supporting this club.
Runner up: Terry Francona
Not because the Red Sox are heading to the playoffs. Really, I just give him credit for not having a heart attack throughout the whole Manny saga.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
NL Rookie of the Year
Winner: Geovany Soto
This one's kind of a no-brainer like the one in the A.L. Soto's numbers make you forget he's a rookie: .285, 23 HRs, 86 RBI. Plus, he's put up those numbers as a catcher, probably the most physically demanding position in baseball. Bonus points go to Soto for being the leader of a pitching staff that has been extremely successful in 2008, and being on the best team in baseball for much of the year. He won't win the MPV, but Soto has a chance to crack the top 10 for his importance on the Cubs.
Runner up: Edison Volquez
At the All Star Break, it looked like Volquez could run away with this award. He had a 2.29 ERA on July 12, but he has fallen off a little since then, slipping to a 3.29 ERA as of Friday night. Still, he's had a phenomenal season on a subpar team, and he is sure to develop into one of the best pitchers in the National League.
Friday, September 19, 2008
It's that time again
And down the stretch we come, to the end of the 2008 baseball season that is. From now until the playoffs we will be running down the list of awards for the year. Keep your eyes open in the coming days as we should be following this schedule:
Rookie of the Year – AL (9/19)
Rookie of the Year – NL (9/20)
Rolaids Reliever of the Year – AL (9/21)
Rolaids Reliever of the Year – NL (9/22)
Manager of the Year – AL (9/23)
Manager of the Year – NL (9/24)
Cy Young – AL (9/25)
Cy Young – NL (9/26)
Note: there are a couple of extra days built in at the end in case we have to push back a game for rain or snow. The Card does not agree with Ernie Banks; there will be no double headers here.
Let’s start off with a pretty easy one. The A.L. Rookie of the Year award was sewn up by the All Star Break for sure.
Winner: Evan Longoria
Evan Longoria is one of the most valuable rookies to a postseason team in recent years. The Rays probably would miss the playoffs without him in the lineup, and in fact, they almost did as they struggled when he was out with an injury.
Longoria is batting .281 with 25 HRs and 78 RBI in 2008. The Rays have been the pleasant surprise (for everyone outside Boston and N.Y.) of the year, and he has been their posterboy.
Runner up: Alexei Ramirez
Maybe you haven’t heard of this guy because he plays for the White Sox, but he’s been a stud in 2008. His .296 batting average is even better than Longoria’s and he has been one of the catalysts for a very good lineup in Chicago. What keeps him from winning the award are his low RBI (66) and run totals (58). You either have to drive them in or score them to beat Longoria. His 18 HRs are pretty impressive for a 2B though.
Rookie of the Year – AL (9/19)
Rookie of the Year – NL (9/20)
Rolaids Reliever of the Year – AL (9/21)
Rolaids Reliever of the Year – NL (9/22)
Manager of the Year – AL (9/23)
Manager of the Year – NL (9/24)
Cy Young – AL (9/25)
Cy Young – NL (9/26)
Note: there are a couple of extra days built in at the end in case we have to push back a game for rain or snow. The Card does not agree with Ernie Banks; there will be no double headers here.
Let’s start off with a pretty easy one. The A.L. Rookie of the Year award was sewn up by the All Star Break for sure.
Winner: Evan Longoria
Evan Longoria is one of the most valuable rookies to a postseason team in recent years. The Rays probably would miss the playoffs without him in the lineup, and in fact, they almost did as they struggled when he was out with an injury.
Longoria is batting .281 with 25 HRs and 78 RBI in 2008. The Rays have been the pleasant surprise (for everyone outside Boston and N.Y.) of the year, and he has been their posterboy.
Runner up: Alexei Ramirez
Maybe you haven’t heard of this guy because he plays for the White Sox, but he’s been a stud in 2008. His .296 batting average is even better than Longoria’s and he has been one of the catalysts for a very good lineup in Chicago. What keeps him from winning the award are his low RBI (66) and run totals (58). You either have to drive them in or score them to beat Longoria. His 18 HRs are pretty impressive for a 2B though.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Leading off
Well, it's an off day for the Red Sox and the Patriots still have a few days left before they turn Joey Porter into the next Anthony Smith, so let's talk about some out of market things.
Let's talk about Ichiro. The man (I use that term loosely because he puts up inhuman numbers) just recorded his eighth-consecutive 200-hit season last night. To put that into perspective: Dustin Pedroia became the first Red Sox player to record 200 hits in a season since 1998. That means while the Sox (one of the best offensive teams in the league every year) couldn't get a single player to notch 200 hits for a decade, Ichiro did it in each of the first eight seasons of his career.
Which brings me to my next point...Ichiro is a Hall of Famer. No doubt about it. No debate. You don't even have to count any of his statistics from Japan. His MLB numbers are good enough on their own.
Well, I guess there's always a debate, so I might as well state the facts of the case. In his eight seasons, Ichiro has never had fewer than 206 hits. He's never had fewer than 31 steals. He's never scored fewer than 101 runs (he has 96 this year so far). He's never batted lower than .303. He's never played in fewer than 157 games (151 so far this year). When you put his worst season totals all together for one year, he's still probably a top 10 MVP candidate.
Plus, he has been arguably one of the best outfielders in the game. He's racked up 67 assists and made just 15 errors in eight years.
He's won an MVP, a rookie of the year award, an All Star MVP, seven gold gloves (in seven years), two silver sluggers, two batting titles. He's been named to eight all star games, set a record for hits in a season, and made the game even more global than it already was.
In my mind, Ichiro has been the best leadoff hitter in baseball for the past eight years. He very likely has been the best or one of the best (see Torii Hunter) defensive outfielders in the game as well. That makes him a Hall of Famer even if he has only been here for less than a decade.
Even if he never played another game, Ichiro should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But just in case no one is buying that, he will probably get to 2,000 hits next year. He's 34 years old, and at this pace he would get to 3,000 hits just before his 40th birthday (in just 14 seasons!!!). He is one of the greatest players of our time, and there is really no doubt about that.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Ryder Cup Preview
The Americans can win this thing for one reason: Tiger is not playing. Wait, the best player in the world – perhaps ever – is not playing and that’s a good thing for the Americans? Hear me out.
It’s not like Tiger has dominated this whole Ryder Cup thing. He’s actually lost more matches than he’s won (10-13-2) in his career at the competition, and the Americans only won the Cup once when he has competed (1999).
Here’s the real reason: Tiger is a golfer who is all about himself, which isn’t a real problem because golf is an individual sport. This isn’t a knock on him; in fact it’s one of the reason’s he is so great, because he doesn’t let anyone else into his world on Sunday and he is the one that rattles his competition.
There’s one problem though. The Ryder Cup is one of those rare team competitions in golf. Maybe when he’s teamed up with people they are intimidated, trying to live up to the standard set by the world’s greatest. Maybe he is too focused on himself and the other players are annoyed by that. Maybe they just expect him make all the big shots and fail to step up on their own. Who knows?
One of the main reasons for the European team’s recent success has been their camaraderie. They all look like they’re having fun together, and they are united in a common goal. I’m not saying Tiger doesn’t care about the Ryder Cup, but if you told him he had to pick between winning a Master’s or a Ryder Cup, do you think he would even hesitate? I think some of the European players might actually think about that decision for a while.
Tiger and Phil and all the rest haven’t been able to get the job done in almost a decade. Who’s to say J.B. Holmes and Chad Campbell can’t do it? I’d rather take a chance that some relative unknowns, who have much more to play for, can step up than keep trotting out the same bunch that loses every year.
It’s not like Tiger has dominated this whole Ryder Cup thing. He’s actually lost more matches than he’s won (10-13-2) in his career at the competition, and the Americans only won the Cup once when he has competed (1999).
Here’s the real reason: Tiger is a golfer who is all about himself, which isn’t a real problem because golf is an individual sport. This isn’t a knock on him; in fact it’s one of the reason’s he is so great, because he doesn’t let anyone else into his world on Sunday and he is the one that rattles his competition.
There’s one problem though. The Ryder Cup is one of those rare team competitions in golf. Maybe when he’s teamed up with people they are intimidated, trying to live up to the standard set by the world’s greatest. Maybe he is too focused on himself and the other players are annoyed by that. Maybe they just expect him make all the big shots and fail to step up on their own. Who knows?
One of the main reasons for the European team’s recent success has been their camaraderie. They all look like they’re having fun together, and they are united in a common goal. I’m not saying Tiger doesn’t care about the Ryder Cup, but if you told him he had to pick between winning a Master’s or a Ryder Cup, do you think he would even hesitate? I think some of the European players might actually think about that decision for a while.
Tiger and Phil and all the rest haven’t been able to get the job done in almost a decade. Who’s to say J.B. Holmes and Chad Campbell can’t do it? I’d rather take a chance that some relative unknowns, who have much more to play for, can step up than keep trotting out the same bunch that loses every year.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Milestone for the captain
Jason Varitek hit his 158th home run as a catcher last night in Tropicana Field, moving him ahead of Carlton Fisk for the club record at the position. Listening to the Rays broadcast on MLBTV, they were shocked that Varitek would be ahead of the Hall of Famer Fisk. Which begs this question, who is the best catcher in Red Sox history?
To me, the answer is simple, and it's not even really close. Sure Fisk is a Hall of Famer. He has ridiculous numbers and set a standard of longevity and consistency that may never be matched at the position.
Varitek will never be a Hall of Famer, because his career numbers don't match the great ones in Cooperstown, but he has been a rock for the Red Sox in their greatest era of all time. He is a .263 hitter (Fisk hit .269 in Boston and Chicago), with 161 HR's at all positions (far fewer than Fisk's 376) and 651 RBI (again far fewer than Fisk's 1330). But he has also caught four no-hitters (MLB record) with two young pitchers (Lester and Buchholz) and two borderline washups (Lowe and Nomo). He also led a team that won two world series (something Fisk can never say).
I'm not trying to put Fisk down, because I think he is one of the best catchers at all time. And I know Varitek has gone downhill the last few years in a Sox uniform. But in their times at the Red Sox, I don't think anyone has been more important behind the plate than 'Tek.
Monday, September 15, 2008
The morning after
OK, so it's not really the morning anymore, but it's still the day after week 2 of the NFL season. No doom and gloom from Patriots fans this week (thank God), just some recapping of the action from an exciting NFL Sunday.
Comebacks: Washington over New Orleans, Carolina over Chicago, Buffalo over Jacksonville, Indy over Minny, San Fran over Seattle and Denver over SD. What a crazy weekend? It was easy to park it in front of the TV all day and not lose interest for a second.
Jay Cutler: Man, this guy goes up and down like a pogo stick. One minute he's the next Joe Montana, the next minute he's the next Ryan Leaf. If the Broncos lost on Sunday, the league may have had to seriously investigate him for point shaving. Twice, the Broncos were inside the five in the waning minutes against San Diego. Once, he threw the worst pass I have ever seen for an interception. And the other time he let the ball slip out of his hands on another attempt that should have been ruled a fumble, then it was ruled a fumble, but somehow (thanks crazy NFL rules like the tuck rule) the Broncos got to keep the ball. My head hurts. Then he threw the game-tying touchdown and game-winning two-point conversion. What's with this guy?
Jets: So you finally have a chance to beat the Patriots, without the reigning MVP on the other side, at home, with a QB that hasn't started since Clinton was in office (against 17-year-olds) and you put up 10 points??? That's rough. If they couldn't win Sunday, does anyone really think they can win in Foxborough when Cassel has a few more games under his belt?
Random thoughts: Peyton Manning will pull a Tom Brady (2005) and carry his team to the playoffs on his shoulders. The Panthers are for real (even without Steve Smith). So are the Bills. The Vikings will go nowhere with Tavaris Jackson at the helm. USC would be favored to win the NFC West. San Diego got screwed in Denver, but the Bolts still aren't good enough to win the AFC. My Rams 7-9 pick isn't looking so hot anymore. Cleveland may have been overrated, but don't count them out just yet.
New Pats prediction: 10-6. Call me impulsive, but they can win with Cassel. They probably won't win the Super Bowl, but who is better in the AFC East?
Comebacks: Washington over New Orleans, Carolina over Chicago, Buffalo over Jacksonville, Indy over Minny, San Fran over Seattle and Denver over SD. What a crazy weekend? It was easy to park it in front of the TV all day and not lose interest for a second.
Jay Cutler: Man, this guy goes up and down like a pogo stick. One minute he's the next Joe Montana, the next minute he's the next Ryan Leaf. If the Broncos lost on Sunday, the league may have had to seriously investigate him for point shaving. Twice, the Broncos were inside the five in the waning minutes against San Diego. Once, he threw the worst pass I have ever seen for an interception. And the other time he let the ball slip out of his hands on another attempt that should have been ruled a fumble, then it was ruled a fumble, but somehow (thanks crazy NFL rules like the tuck rule) the Broncos got to keep the ball. My head hurts. Then he threw the game-tying touchdown and game-winning two-point conversion. What's with this guy?
Jets: So you finally have a chance to beat the Patriots, without the reigning MVP on the other side, at home, with a QB that hasn't started since Clinton was in office (against 17-year-olds) and you put up 10 points??? That's rough. If they couldn't win Sunday, does anyone really think they can win in Foxborough when Cassel has a few more games under his belt?
Random thoughts: Peyton Manning will pull a Tom Brady (2005) and carry his team to the playoffs on his shoulders. The Panthers are for real (even without Steve Smith). So are the Bills. The Vikings will go nowhere with Tavaris Jackson at the helm. USC would be favored to win the NFC West. San Diego got screwed in Denver, but the Bolts still aren't good enough to win the AFC. My Rams 7-9 pick isn't looking so hot anymore. Cleveland may have been overrated, but don't count them out just yet.
New Pats prediction: 10-6. Call me impulsive, but they can win with Cassel. They probably won't win the Super Bowl, but who is better in the AFC East?
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Survival football
Just some thoughts about the Patriots 19-10 win against the Jets before they get beaten to death like a dead horse.
1. Cassel played well enough to win: He looked like the 2001 Brady, completing the short passes and not making any big mistakes. His best pass of the day was a 12-yard route to Randy Moss across the middle, and the next pass to Moss on the deep ball in the fourth should have been caught by Moss.
2. The defense will be the key to the 2008 Patriots season: I know I'm stating the obvious here, but the defense was the anchor today, and will be all season. The Pats will be settling for more field goals than ever, and the D will have to make up for the decreased scoring. Bruschi looked as good as he has in years today, and Hobbs and O'Neal played well in the secondary. Merriweather's INT in the third set up the Pats first TD and may have been the difference in the game.
3. Gostkowski is killing the ball: He didn't kick one longer than 37 yards on Sunday, but all his kickoffs went for touchbacks except one (which was only returned to the 20 anyways). Maybe Belichick will show more confidence in him this year. He likely will have to.
4. The spread worked: The Pats running game got going big time in the second half when they spread the field and ran the ball from the shotgun. The depth at running back will be key to take the pressure off Cassel and Sammy Morris and Lamont Jordan were spectacular.
5. The O-line was decent: Three sacks doesn't look great, but attribute some of that to Cassel's inexperience. Billy Yates really impressed me, especially with a key block on a screen that sprung Kevin Faulk for a big gain. Dan Koppen had an off day at center.
6. Richard Seymour may be back: The big fella made some huge plays, especially on a goal-line stand for the Pats in the first half. He also bull rushed a blocker on his way to a big sack. He looks like he's in the best shape he's been in since signing that fat contract.
Clutch
Quick note as we head into the beginning of Pats/Jets 2008: How clutch is Adam Vinatieri? I mean he's not Mr. Automatic like he was in his prime in NE, but he never wilts under pressure. Today he missed a 30-yarder in the fourth quarter, but came out to boot the winner from 47 yards with less than 10 seconds on the clock. For my money, with the game on the line, I still want Vinatieri taking the kick. He is the all-time greatest.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
The other side: Angry Craig previews the Jets
Here we are for the second week of the NFL season. The Jets will be opening up at home against the Patriots for the third year in a row. The Patriots have gotten the better of the Jets the past two times. The Jets are hoping that the third time's a charm to get a win. That charm may have been Bernard Pollard, who, as you all know, knocked Tom Brady out for the season. I won't say this is a must win for either team because it is too early in the season (and both have very favorable schedules down the road), but it is a big game for the confidence of the players on both sides.
The Patriots are coming off an impressive victory against the Chiefs. Matt Cassel was very efficient coming in for the injured Brady, which included a 98-yard drive capped off with a touchdown to Randy Moss. The question now is, will there be any change in the offensive game plans now that Matt Cassel is running the show. I think that the Patriots will run the ball more since they are really deep at the running back position with Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan, and getting Kevin Faulk back from suspension. These guys have the ability to carry the offense and sustain drives, which will ease in Cassel in his first start since high school.
Players and coaches from the Jets have been saying that the Patriots are still the team to beat in the AFC East. They still might be, but one thing is for sure, the Jets have to be excited that there really is an opportunity for them to take over the division this year. The Jets defense was impressive last week holding the Dolphins to a total of 49 yards rushing. The defense also recorded four sacks and got plenty of pressure on Chad Pennington. With that being said, the Jets will have to get pressure on Cassel and force him to make bad throws.
The Jets haven't won the division since 2002, and this Sunday could be their real first step toward winning the division.
Prediction: Jets 23, Pats 17
The Patriots are coming off an impressive victory against the Chiefs. Matt Cassel was very efficient coming in for the injured Brady, which included a 98-yard drive capped off with a touchdown to Randy Moss. The question now is, will there be any change in the offensive game plans now that Matt Cassel is running the show. I think that the Patriots will run the ball more since they are really deep at the running back position with Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan, and getting Kevin Faulk back from suspension. These guys have the ability to carry the offense and sustain drives, which will ease in Cassel in his first start since high school.
Players and coaches from the Jets have been saying that the Patriots are still the team to beat in the AFC East. They still might be, but one thing is for sure, the Jets have to be excited that there really is an opportunity for them to take over the division this year. The Jets defense was impressive last week holding the Dolphins to a total of 49 yards rushing. The defense also recorded four sacks and got plenty of pressure on Chad Pennington. With that being said, the Jets will have to get pressure on Cassel and force him to make bad throws.
The Jets haven't won the division since 2002, and this Sunday could be their real first step toward winning the division.
Prediction: Jets 23, Pats 17
Friday, September 12, 2008
Do or die in week 2
It’s always been about the coaches in the Pats/Jets rivalry. First, it was Parcels jumping ship while pretending to coach a Super Bowl team. Then it was Belichick turning down the HC position of the NYJ. Then it was Mangini, spurning the advice of his mentor to coach a division rival. Then it was spygate and a year’s worth of annoying ESPN coverage.
Now, it’s about the coaches again. Only it’s not.
Everyone wants to make this about Belichick showing off his coaching muscle in the post-Brady era. Everywhere you turn the question is being asked: “Can Bill win without Tom?”
But this isn’t about Belichick and it’s not about Brady either. It’s not even about Brett Favre (for once). This is about little brother challenging big brother for the first time in more than half a decade.
The Pats are Ivan Drago here, and they’re cut and bleeding. You could almost hear Mangini yelling “He’s not a machine, he’s a man!” all the way from Miami on Sunday.
This is the Jets’ best chance to win the division since 2002. Sure, they won a home game against New England in 2006, but they never challenged the Pats’ perch atop the division that year. It’s now or never for them.
If the Jets win on Sunday, they can show that they are the class of the AFC East. They would move to 2-0 and would clearly be the favorite in the division. But most of all, they would prove to themselves that they could actually win this thing.
But the flip side of that is they could lose. And if they do, who knows if they can recover? This is as good a chance as you’re going to get to beat the big bad Patriots. The star player is down, and Matt Cassel is getting his first start since 1999 (in high school). No matter what you may think of Matty C, it’s more than likely he will at least get better with every snap considering he’s had such limited playing time in his career.
I hate to pull an ESPN and say the season is riding on one game (in week two no less), but this time it might actually be true. The course for the 2008 season for each team may be set in the Meadowlands on Sunday.
No pressure, Jets.
Now, it’s about the coaches again. Only it’s not.
Everyone wants to make this about Belichick showing off his coaching muscle in the post-Brady era. Everywhere you turn the question is being asked: “Can Bill win without Tom?”
But this isn’t about Belichick and it’s not about Brady either. It’s not even about Brett Favre (for once). This is about little brother challenging big brother for the first time in more than half a decade.
The Pats are Ivan Drago here, and they’re cut and bleeding. You could almost hear Mangini yelling “He’s not a machine, he’s a man!” all the way from Miami on Sunday.
This is the Jets’ best chance to win the division since 2002. Sure, they won a home game against New England in 2006, but they never challenged the Pats’ perch atop the division that year. It’s now or never for them.
If the Jets win on Sunday, they can show that they are the class of the AFC East. They would move to 2-0 and would clearly be the favorite in the division. But most of all, they would prove to themselves that they could actually win this thing.
But the flip side of that is they could lose. And if they do, who knows if they can recover? This is as good a chance as you’re going to get to beat the big bad Patriots. The star player is down, and Matt Cassel is getting his first start since 1999 (in high school). No matter what you may think of Matty C, it’s more than likely he will at least get better with every snap considering he’s had such limited playing time in his career.
I hate to pull an ESPN and say the season is riding on one game (in week two no less), but this time it might actually be true. The course for the 2008 season for each team may be set in the Meadowlands on Sunday.
No pressure, Jets.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
To live and die with Cassel...
After much deliberation (with myself) and careful film study (OK, I watched Sportcenter highlights) I have devised a gameplan that I believe can work for the Patriots and Matt Cassel.
We’ve heard much about the “spread offense” and its use in college. It has caught on with such enthusiasm that the traditional schools like Michigan and Ohio State are starting to use it.
Will it work in the NFL? Not really. The spread offense doesn’t work in the NFL because defenses are too fast and too smart. The zone read would be snuffed out on every play and there are few quarterbacks that can even outrun defensive ends these days. It’s the same reason why the option never truly worked at the pro level.
But here is something that does work, and it’s already in the Patriots playbook for sure: Spread the field with four or five receivers on almost every play. It’s a little different from the college “spread offense” because it puts more emphasis on the pass and ditches the quarterback running part. Call me crazy, but spreading the field is actually the safest route to take with a quarterback that has little experience.
Defenses won’t be able to crowd the line with linebackers and defensive backs. Blitzes will be more noticeable because the defenders will be farther from the ball and will have to commit earlier to the play. There will be less traffic over the middle for Cassel to sift through, reducing the likelihood of interceptions. The running game will be able to find the gaps more easily against nickel and dime packages.
Most of all, it will get Cassel going early in the game and build his confidence. The Pats can spread the field and start hitting on short slants early to build some momentum. When the defense adjusts, they pound the run with Morris and Maroney (still out of the spread out formations).
Conventional wisdom with a young quarterback is to hunker down and run the football. It conserves the clock and limits your chances of making a big mistake. It also limits your chances of making a big play because the defense will adjust to you and limit your gains.
I say the Pats should go down swinging. Take the training wheels off the young kid early and chuck the ball. It may not work, but at least they can say they tried to win.
We’ve heard much about the “spread offense” and its use in college. It has caught on with such enthusiasm that the traditional schools like Michigan and Ohio State are starting to use it.
Will it work in the NFL? Not really. The spread offense doesn’t work in the NFL because defenses are too fast and too smart. The zone read would be snuffed out on every play and there are few quarterbacks that can even outrun defensive ends these days. It’s the same reason why the option never truly worked at the pro level.
But here is something that does work, and it’s already in the Patriots playbook for sure: Spread the field with four or five receivers on almost every play. It’s a little different from the college “spread offense” because it puts more emphasis on the pass and ditches the quarterback running part. Call me crazy, but spreading the field is actually the safest route to take with a quarterback that has little experience.
Defenses won’t be able to crowd the line with linebackers and defensive backs. Blitzes will be more noticeable because the defenders will be farther from the ball and will have to commit earlier to the play. There will be less traffic over the middle for Cassel to sift through, reducing the likelihood of interceptions. The running game will be able to find the gaps more easily against nickel and dime packages.
Most of all, it will get Cassel going early in the game and build his confidence. The Pats can spread the field and start hitting on short slants early to build some momentum. When the defense adjusts, they pound the run with Morris and Maroney (still out of the spread out formations).
Conventional wisdom with a young quarterback is to hunker down and run the football. It conserves the clock and limits your chances of making a big mistake. It also limits your chances of making a big play because the defense will adjust to you and limit your gains.
I say the Pats should go down swinging. Take the training wheels off the young kid early and chuck the ball. It may not work, but at least they can say they tried to win.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
2 AB
Today is day two After Brady, and the wounds haven’t completely healed. I must say, I’ve taken the news of Brady’s injury slightly better than expected. Maybe it’s because I knew he could get hurt (although it was his foot, not his knee that scared everyone), maybe it’s because the Red Sox are surging and the Celtics will be starting soon. But before we all totally give up on the Pats, let’s look at some possible scenarios for 2008.
The good
Glass half full people, at least in this part of the entry (see the bad and the ugly later).
1. Matt Cassel pulls a Tom Brady circa 2001, where he didn’t do anything special during the season, but he also didn’t lose any games. The defense took over and Brady managed the game well enough to win 11 times in the regular season.
2. The depth at running back fills part of the hole that Brady left, giving the Patriots a weapon to control the clock and let Cassel stay out of trouble.
3. Randy Moss saves Cassel on several deep chucks (see Culpepper to Moss) and makes him look better than he really is.
The bad
More likely scenarios in here. Patriots apologists beware, you may not like this part.
1. Offensive linemen like Matt Light are exposed for the frauds they are. Without Brady’s pocket presence and ability to get rid of the ball quickly, the line gives up more sacks than it has in years.
2. The running game is snuffed out because teams are able to stack eight in the box and dare Cassel to beat them. Cassel can’t do this and the offense is shut down (see Baltimore Ravens every year).
3. The old defense gets worn down because the offense can never sustain a drive. Even with talented players on that side of the ball, they cannot continue to play 70 percent of the snaps and be efficient at this age.
The ugly
Worst-case scenarios, but possible
1. Randy Moss shows his true colors. Angry Craig mentioned this the other day, and it could certainly happen. The first time Cassel misses a wide open Moss in the endzone, all hell could break loose and he could shut it down again. Brady kept him in check; let’s see if Cassel can do the same.
2. Matt Cassel gets hurt from the constant pounding the O-line allows him to take. Who’s next to step up? Rookie Kevin O’Connel? Matt Gutierrez? Doug Flutie? Me?
3. Belichick packs it in for the year. Knowing his team cannot make the playoffs, Bill throws in the towel and starts blowing games. He did it to set up playoff position in 2005 (the last time Cassel saw significant time before Sunday), he could do it again. That would suck to watch, but it may turn out to be a shrewd move for draft picks.
The good
Glass half full people, at least in this part of the entry (see the bad and the ugly later).
1. Matt Cassel pulls a Tom Brady circa 2001, where he didn’t do anything special during the season, but he also didn’t lose any games. The defense took over and Brady managed the game well enough to win 11 times in the regular season.
2. The depth at running back fills part of the hole that Brady left, giving the Patriots a weapon to control the clock and let Cassel stay out of trouble.
3. Randy Moss saves Cassel on several deep chucks (see Culpepper to Moss) and makes him look better than he really is.
The bad
More likely scenarios in here. Patriots apologists beware, you may not like this part.
1. Offensive linemen like Matt Light are exposed for the frauds they are. Without Brady’s pocket presence and ability to get rid of the ball quickly, the line gives up more sacks than it has in years.
2. The running game is snuffed out because teams are able to stack eight in the box and dare Cassel to beat them. Cassel can’t do this and the offense is shut down (see Baltimore Ravens every year).
3. The old defense gets worn down because the offense can never sustain a drive. Even with talented players on that side of the ball, they cannot continue to play 70 percent of the snaps and be efficient at this age.
The ugly
Worst-case scenarios, but possible
1. Randy Moss shows his true colors. Angry Craig mentioned this the other day, and it could certainly happen. The first time Cassel misses a wide open Moss in the endzone, all hell could break loose and he could shut it down again. Brady kept him in check; let’s see if Cassel can do the same.
2. Matt Cassel gets hurt from the constant pounding the O-line allows him to take. Who’s next to step up? Rookie Kevin O’Connel? Matt Gutierrez? Doug Flutie? Me?
3. Belichick packs it in for the year. Knowing his team cannot make the playoffs, Bill throws in the towel and starts blowing games. He did it to set up playoff position in 2005 (the last time Cassel saw significant time before Sunday), he could do it again. That would suck to watch, but it may turn out to be a shrewd move for draft picks.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Therapy
This might make you laugh. It might make you cry. Maybe a little of both. I'm not even sure if it helps or not, but I haven't slit my wrists yet this morning. Then again, it's only 7:30 a.m.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Worst case scenario
Well, it seems like it finally happened. We all knew Brady would get hurt some day, and today appears to be that day. Let me tell you, Patriots fans, all is far from well.
I listened to the yahoos on WEEI after the game telling everyone how the Pats will be fine without Brady. They ranted about how well Matt Cassel did against that proud Kansas City Chiefs defense (13-18, 152 yards, 1 TD).
Truth be told, Matt Cassel did just fine today. He did what Patriots fans hoped he would do: manage the game and not make mistakes. He did everything he needed to do to win the game.
But before we all get too excited, let's remember, this was the Kansas City Chiefs...at home...without THEIR starting quarterback down the stretch. And the Chiefs came THIS CLOSE to tying it at the end.
Without Brady, the Patriots have a fourth-year rookie leading the charge. Teams will stack eight in the box to shut down a running game that has been less than perfect the past two seasons. Cassel will have to make some plays for the Patriots to go anywhere, and I don't have the confidence he will do that.
This could be a long season for the Patriots, so let's hope the MRI on Monday isn't as bad as we all fear.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Blowing the whistle: Instant Replay
I’ve been on record for a long time as a staunch opponent of instant replay in baseball. Call me old fashioned, but I like the “human factor” that exists when real people need to make real judgment calls in a split second (full disclosure: I’ve been umpiring baseball at various levels for enough time to make me significantly jaded). All that being said, it looks like instant replay is here to stay. Commissioner Selig has made it explicitly clear that the only reviewable calls are calls on the periphery of the field of play – the so called “boundary calls”. I’m OK with that. I can live with umpires taking some time to check a replay of a disputed homerun. The problem I see is that instant replay is a band-aid on the larger problem – MLB stadium design.
At this point everyone has seen A-Rod’s home run on September 3rd that was correctly ruled a home run by third base umpire Brian Runge. The crew was convinced the review the play and the call was upheld by crew chief Charlie Reliford. The replay process went smoothly and everyone (with the possible exception of Joe Maddon – who still claims he doesn’t know if the ball was fair or foul) was happy. Looking at Tropicana Field down the left field line, there is the standard, run-of-the-mill foul/fair pole right where it belongs. Some 30 feet behind that sits a foul pole extension – a bastard child of stadium architecture. What the hell? This is a baseball field; there should be two fair/foul poles on the field, not two with two separate extensions. If the poles aren’t tall enough to begin with, then they should have changed the design! Problems like these aren’t limited to the Trop, although it may take the cake as the worst designed ballpark in The Show. What the hell is with the shelf on top of the Green Monster Seats? That doesn’t belong there. If a ball goes over the wall, it’s a homerun, let’s design these ballparks so there’s little chance that the ball can’t come back into play easily. Umpiring crews weren’t missing homerun calls with any regularity 20 years ago. Maybe instant replay isn’t the answer, maybe it’s a symptom when non-baseball people design our hallowed grounds for fan experience and not the game itself.
At this point everyone has seen A-Rod’s home run on September 3rd that was correctly ruled a home run by third base umpire Brian Runge. The crew was convinced the review the play and the call was upheld by crew chief Charlie Reliford. The replay process went smoothly and everyone (with the possible exception of Joe Maddon – who still claims he doesn’t know if the ball was fair or foul) was happy. Looking at Tropicana Field down the left field line, there is the standard, run-of-the-mill foul/fair pole right where it belongs. Some 30 feet behind that sits a foul pole extension – a bastard child of stadium architecture. What the hell? This is a baseball field; there should be two fair/foul poles on the field, not two with two separate extensions. If the poles aren’t tall enough to begin with, then they should have changed the design! Problems like these aren’t limited to the Trop, although it may take the cake as the worst designed ballpark in The Show. What the hell is with the shelf on top of the Green Monster Seats? That doesn’t belong there. If a ball goes over the wall, it’s a homerun, let’s design these ballparks so there’s little chance that the ball can’t come back into play easily. Umpiring crews weren’t missing homerun calls with any regularity 20 years ago. Maybe instant replay isn’t the answer, maybe it’s a symptom when non-baseball people design our hallowed grounds for fan experience and not the game itself.
The flip side
Just to prove we're not totally one sided over here at The Card, we're going to have a guest columnist from time to time. Angry Craig is a die-hard (I really can't stress that enough) J-E-T-S fan. Hopefully his columns will be slightly less crazy than his weekly speeches he puts out on his away messages.
It pains me to do this, but in the interest of fair journalism we'll give Craig his soapbox:
There could not be a better storyline for a week 1 matchup that looked like just another game when the NFL schedule came out. Brett Favre vs. Chad Pennington. The NFL's leading passer vs. the NFL's most accurate passer. Just one month ago Pennington was the leading candidate to be the New York Jets' starting quarterback. Now he will be playing against the defense that he has practiced against since 2000, when he was drafted in the first round by, guess who, Bill Parcells. It will be weird to see both Favre and Pennington standing out there at the 50-yard line for the coin toss as they have both been nominated team captains, and will definitely be awkward to see Chad in that Dolphins uniform.
The Jets off-season acquisitions will be making their debuts on Sunday. Alan Faneca and Damien Woody were acquired to upgrade an offensive line that gave up 53 sacks (3rd most in 2007). They also traded for Kris Jenkins to get a nose tackle that is big enough to take on two defenders in order to allow the inside linebackers (David Harris and Eric Barton) to stop the run. Calvin Pace was brought in to help a defense that recorded only 29 sacks (25th most in 2007). Tony Richardson was brought in to be the fullback. And of course, Brett Favre. Somehow the Jets were able to pull off this blockbuster deal. There won't be eight men in the box as often now that defenses will have to respect the deep ball more, which will provide more running room for Thomas Jones and Leon Washington.
As for the Dolphins, the only place they can go is up. The last time Bill Parcells took over a 1-15 team was in 1997 when he came over to the New York Jets. They finished 9-7 that year and missed the playoffs by one game. The Fins made a smart move to get him in their front office. I believe they will be a much improved team. They were really smart to snatch Chad when he was released. Chad is an upgrade over the Trent Green, Cleo Lemon and John Beck combination they had last year. He's a veteran who will bring leadership and confidence to a team that needs someone to look up to and rely on.
This game will truly be a chess match. It will be a fun game to watch. It seems like what has happened last month can rekindle a traditional rivalry, which the Jets have owned, only losing four times to the Fins since 1998.
Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 10.
The Jets off-season acquisitions will be making their debuts on Sunday. Alan Faneca and Damien Woody were acquired to upgrade an offensive line that gave up 53 sacks (3rd most in 2007). They also traded for Kris Jenkins to get a nose tackle that is big enough to take on two defenders in order to allow the inside linebackers (David Harris and Eric Barton) to stop the run. Calvin Pace was brought in to help a defense that recorded only 29 sacks (25th most in 2007). Tony Richardson was brought in to be the fullback. And of course, Brett Favre. Somehow the Jets were able to pull off this blockbuster deal. There won't be eight men in the box as often now that defenses will have to respect the deep ball more, which will provide more running room for Thomas Jones and Leon Washington.
As for the Dolphins, the only place they can go is up. The last time Bill Parcells took over a 1-15 team was in 1997 when he came over to the New York Jets. They finished 9-7 that year and missed the playoffs by one game. The Fins made a smart move to get him in their front office. I believe they will be a much improved team. They were really smart to snatch Chad when he was released. Chad is an upgrade over the Trent Green, Cleo Lemon and John Beck combination they had last year. He's a veteran who will bring leadership and confidence to a team that needs someone to look up to and rely on.
This game will truly be a chess match. It will be a fun game to watch. It seems like what has happened last month can rekindle a traditional rivalry, which the Jets have owned, only losing four times to the Fins since 1998.
Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 10.
Friday, September 5, 2008
The great MVP debate
This question was posed to me on Wednesday by a staff member who will remain nameless because of his questionable A.L. Cy Young predictions: Is Dustin Pedroia the MVP?
My first reaction was no. Fans, especially Red Sox fans, have a tendency to go nuts whenever a player or a team goes on a hot streak. Pedroia has had a hot week, even a hot month, so he’s suddenly the MVP? I like to think we can be a little more rational than that.
So, let’s be rational and look at the numbers. For our purposes today, we are going to look at how Dustin Pedroia, Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin rank in the A.L. batting categories.
Pedroia
Avg – .333 (1), Runs – 110 (1), HR – 17 (32), RBI – 76 (21), OBP - .378 (13), Hits – 191 (1), TB – 290 (3), Slg - .505 (18), OPS - .883 (16)
-Fielding note – The little man has made just six errors for a .991 fielding percentage this season.
Quentin
Avg – .288 (27), Runs – 96 (5), HR – 36 (1), RBI – 100 (4), OBP - .394 (6), Hits – 138 (33), TB – 274 (8), Slg - .571 (4), OPS - .965 (3)
-Fielding note – Quentin has made seven errors in the outfield for a .971 fielding percentage.
Hamilton
Avg – .301 (16), Runs – 86 (13), HR – 31 (4), RBI – 121 (1), OBP - .363 (27), Hits – 164 (7), TB – 295 (2), Slg - .542 (7), OPS - .906 (9)
-Fielding note – Hamilton has made seven outfield assists.
Statistically, you can make a strong case for Hamilton for MVP; he is near the top in every category except on base percentage, and he’s the only one of the three in the top 20 in all three Triple Crown categories. But the Rangers are just too far out of the playoffs, and his numbers aren’t big enough to make up for that.
At first glance the numbers don’t support Pedroia’s case. Quentin is in the top 10 in every category on this list except average and hits. Pedroia only cracks the top 10 in four categories, mostly because I included hits and average (which sometimes coincide) as well as total bases.
I will say this though, Pedroia’s strong showing in runs makes up for the fact that he does not do well in RBI, because he is a table setter, not a cleanup hitter (until recently) for the Red Sox. But where Quentin is deficient (batting average), he makes up for it with the sixth best OBP in the league.
And I know you can argue the intangibles: the hustle and the effort and how he gets his whole team going. But how is Carlos Quentin not just as important, if not more so, for Chicago?
The verdict: Quentin is my MVP today, but it’s closer than I thought. Quentin is hurt and Pedroia is surging, so I reserve the right to change my vote in October. In the end, only one of these teams may make the playoffs, and in a race this close, that could be all the difference.
My first reaction was no. Fans, especially Red Sox fans, have a tendency to go nuts whenever a player or a team goes on a hot streak. Pedroia has had a hot week, even a hot month, so he’s suddenly the MVP? I like to think we can be a little more rational than that.
So, let’s be rational and look at the numbers. For our purposes today, we are going to look at how Dustin Pedroia, Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin rank in the A.L. batting categories.
Pedroia
Avg – .333 (1), Runs – 110 (1), HR – 17 (32), RBI – 76 (21), OBP - .378 (13), Hits – 191 (1), TB – 290 (3), Slg - .505 (18), OPS - .883 (16)
-Fielding note – The little man has made just six errors for a .991 fielding percentage this season.
Quentin
Avg – .288 (27), Runs – 96 (5), HR – 36 (1), RBI – 100 (4), OBP - .394 (6), Hits – 138 (33), TB – 274 (8), Slg - .571 (4), OPS - .965 (3)
-Fielding note – Quentin has made seven errors in the outfield for a .971 fielding percentage.
Hamilton
Avg – .301 (16), Runs – 86 (13), HR – 31 (4), RBI – 121 (1), OBP - .363 (27), Hits – 164 (7), TB – 295 (2), Slg - .542 (7), OPS - .906 (9)
-Fielding note – Hamilton has made seven outfield assists.
Statistically, you can make a strong case for Hamilton for MVP; he is near the top in every category except on base percentage, and he’s the only one of the three in the top 20 in all three Triple Crown categories. But the Rangers are just too far out of the playoffs, and his numbers aren’t big enough to make up for that.
At first glance the numbers don’t support Pedroia’s case. Quentin is in the top 10 in every category on this list except average and hits. Pedroia only cracks the top 10 in four categories, mostly because I included hits and average (which sometimes coincide) as well as total bases.
I will say this though, Pedroia’s strong showing in runs makes up for the fact that he does not do well in RBI, because he is a table setter, not a cleanup hitter (until recently) for the Red Sox. But where Quentin is deficient (batting average), he makes up for it with the sixth best OBP in the league.
And I know you can argue the intangibles: the hustle and the effort and how he gets his whole team going. But how is Carlos Quentin not just as important, if not more so, for Chicago?
The verdict: Quentin is my MVP today, but it’s closer than I thought. Quentin is hurt and Pedroia is surging, so I reserve the right to change my vote in October. In the end, only one of these teams may make the playoffs, and in a race this close, that could be all the difference.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
It's official
Check it out. Angry Craig sent this little nugget over to me. It's the Cincinnati Bengals updated roster with a new name on it.
Gene Upshaw just rolled over in his grave (too soon?).
Super Bowl Pick
Did you think I left this part out? I wouldn't miss it for the world.
So to recap, I picked the Patriots to win the AFC with the Panthers taking the senior circuit (NFC). Both these teams depend on their quarterbacks staying healthy in 2008, so it's possible each could finish with horrible records if Brady or Delhomme go down for extended periods of time.
And I know I've said a few critical things of the Patriots this preseason (God forbid I say anything bad about them), but I'm going with New England to win it all.
Why? Because everyone's talking about how they're going to slip. Everyone's talking about how they choked away the Super Bowl. For the first time in year's the Pats have a legitimate reason to have a chip on their shoulder. They've been putting a fake one up there since 2004, but it hasn't really fit well.
Now they can play the "nobody believed in us" card, and kind of mean it. And I know Brady, Bruschi, Vrabel and all the other long-time Pats love to play that role again. As soon as you doubt these guys, they show you just how good they are.
The pick: Patriots def. Panthers in rematch of Super Bowl XXXVIII - 24-17
2008 NFC predictions
Before we get to the NFC picks I want to answer a question from a reader about my thoughts on Matt Gutierrez getting cut from the Pats. I am pretty disappointed Matty Gutz didn't make the team. He showed that he could run the offense pretty well in preseason, leading the team on a few touchdown drives.
The real issue is that Matt Cassel has no right to be on an NFL team. He never played at USC, and he has rarely played in New England. When he has played, there have been few - if any - flashes of anything remotely resemlbing potential. It seemed to me that this preseason was make or break time for Cassel, and he didn't do much to make me want to see him in a Patriots uniform in September.
And now...on to the picks.
NFC East
1. Dallas (12-4) - The toughest division in the league will pose a challenge, but this team has the goods to deliver.
2. N.Y. Giants (10-6) - The G-men have a chip on their shoulder because no one is picking them to win it all this year. Hey, everyone said the Patriots were lucky in 2001, so it doesn't mean the Giants aren't good. Still, it will be tough to replace the two sacks leaders from a D-line that singlehandedly won a Super Bowl.
3. Philladelphia (9-7) - McNabb goes down in week 11. Kevin Kolb steps in and wins four of six to close out the year. McNabb comes back for the playoffs. The Eagles are promptly eliminated.
4. Washington (6-10) - Am I the only one that knows Jason Campbell is the quarterback for this team? Why is everyone picking them to do well? He's just not good enough.
NFC North
1. Minnesota (10-6) - They have a weak QB like Washington, but the Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor combo will make life easier for Tavaris Jackson. And the defense is good enough to make up for a mediocre offense.
2. Green Bay (9-7) - Aaron Rodgers will take some lumps in his first season, but he's surrounded by a team that was one play away from the Super Bowl last year. He's no Favre, but he'll be fine.
3. Detroit (6-10) - Sorry Kitna, but your team is still not getting to 10 wins. The schedule did the Lions a lot of favors to start the year in 2007; it gives no such help this year.
4. Chicago (4-12) - An aging defense (see Baltimore) that's built around guys like Urlacher playing every snap means those weaknesses will be exposed late in games. Seriously, no quarterback in free agency or the draft?
NFC South
1. Carolina (13-3) - Call me crazy, but I believe in the Panthers. Jake Delhomme was on the verge of taking a big step last year when he got derailed by Tommy John surgery. If he recovers like a baseball player (usually stronger than before), this team will be a beast.
2. New Orleans (10-6) - A healthy running game should help the Saints this year. Reggie Bush will look better with Deuce Deuce back to compliment him.
3. Tampa Bay (6-10) - Jeff Garcia is a winner, but eventually he has to get old. He's been bald for about 54 years now, so I'm saying this is the year he drops off for good.
4. Atlanta (2-14) - And with the first pick in the 2009 NFL draft...
NFC West
1. Seattle (9-7) - The best of the worst division in all of football. I think the SEC is tougher than the NFC West.
2. St. Louis (7-9) - Most of the Rams' problems last year were caused by injuries. They weren't as bad as the team that earned the second pick in the draft, and they won't be that bad again this year.
3. Arizona (6-10) - I'm not falling for the Cards this year, which means they'll probably win the Super Bowl. Odds either Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart is healthy come New Year's: 7-1.
4. San Francisco (3-13) - When T.J. O'Sullivan beats you out for a job it's safe to say you were a bust as the No. 1 draft pick Alex Smith. Too bad the Pats don't have the Niners' draft pick this year.
Playoffs
First Round - Vikings def. Eagles, Giants def. Seahawks
Second Round - Panthers def. Giants, Vikings def. Cowboys
NFC Championship - Panthers def. Vikings
The real issue is that Matt Cassel has no right to be on an NFL team. He never played at USC, and he has rarely played in New England. When he has played, there have been few - if any - flashes of anything remotely resemlbing potential. It seemed to me that this preseason was make or break time for Cassel, and he didn't do much to make me want to see him in a Patriots uniform in September.
And now...on to the picks.
NFC East
1. Dallas (12-4) - The toughest division in the league will pose a challenge, but this team has the goods to deliver.
2. N.Y. Giants (10-6) - The G-men have a chip on their shoulder because no one is picking them to win it all this year. Hey, everyone said the Patriots were lucky in 2001, so it doesn't mean the Giants aren't good. Still, it will be tough to replace the two sacks leaders from a D-line that singlehandedly won a Super Bowl.
3. Philladelphia (9-7) - McNabb goes down in week 11. Kevin Kolb steps in and wins four of six to close out the year. McNabb comes back for the playoffs. The Eagles are promptly eliminated.
4. Washington (6-10) - Am I the only one that knows Jason Campbell is the quarterback for this team? Why is everyone picking them to do well? He's just not good enough.
NFC North
1. Minnesota (10-6) - They have a weak QB like Washington, but the Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor combo will make life easier for Tavaris Jackson. And the defense is good enough to make up for a mediocre offense.
2. Green Bay (9-7) - Aaron Rodgers will take some lumps in his first season, but he's surrounded by a team that was one play away from the Super Bowl last year. He's no Favre, but he'll be fine.
3. Detroit (6-10) - Sorry Kitna, but your team is still not getting to 10 wins. The schedule did the Lions a lot of favors to start the year in 2007; it gives no such help this year.
4. Chicago (4-12) - An aging defense (see Baltimore) that's built around guys like Urlacher playing every snap means those weaknesses will be exposed late in games. Seriously, no quarterback in free agency or the draft?
NFC South
1. Carolina (13-3) - Call me crazy, but I believe in the Panthers. Jake Delhomme was on the verge of taking a big step last year when he got derailed by Tommy John surgery. If he recovers like a baseball player (usually stronger than before), this team will be a beast.
2. New Orleans (10-6) - A healthy running game should help the Saints this year. Reggie Bush will look better with Deuce Deuce back to compliment him.
3. Tampa Bay (6-10) - Jeff Garcia is a winner, but eventually he has to get old. He's been bald for about 54 years now, so I'm saying this is the year he drops off for good.
4. Atlanta (2-14) - And with the first pick in the 2009 NFL draft...
NFC West
1. Seattle (9-7) - The best of the worst division in all of football. I think the SEC is tougher than the NFC West.
2. St. Louis (7-9) - Most of the Rams' problems last year were caused by injuries. They weren't as bad as the team that earned the second pick in the draft, and they won't be that bad again this year.
3. Arizona (6-10) - I'm not falling for the Cards this year, which means they'll probably win the Super Bowl. Odds either Kurt Warner or Matt Leinart is healthy come New Year's: 7-1.
4. San Francisco (3-13) - When T.J. O'Sullivan beats you out for a job it's safe to say you were a bust as the No. 1 draft pick Alex Smith. Too bad the Pats don't have the Niners' draft pick this year.
Playoffs
First Round - Vikings def. Eagles, Giants def. Seahawks
Second Round - Panthers def. Giants, Vikings def. Cowboys
NFC Championship - Panthers def. Vikings
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
2008 AFC predictions
It's go time in the NFL. So like everyone else in this media world, I will give you my fairly uneducated picks for how each team will fare this year (NFC picks to come on Thursday).
Note: This baseball season I picked the Mariners, Tigers and Padres to win their divisions this year. Whoops, hopefully football is really my sport.
AFC East
1. Patriots (13-3) - If Brady is healthy, this team will have the best record in the AFC again. If he's not, the Pats could be one of the worst.
2. Jets (9-7) - Favre makes them a better team this year, but not good enough for the playoffs. No one had more overrated offseason acquisitions than the Jets (See Damien Woody and Calvin Pace).
3. Bills (7-9) - They're really not that bad, but they are also significantly worse than the Patriots and probably slightly worse than the Jets.
4. Dolphins (3-13) - Paul Pasqualoni is the best thing on this team this year. He's a head coach by 2011.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh (11-5) - This division is surprisingly soft, and the Steelers are the least soft of the bunch.
2. Cleveland (10-6) - This is the year the Browns finally make the playoffs. Romeo knows what he's doing.
3. Cincinnati (7-9) - I love Ocho Cinco, but this year his act might go over the line and the Bengals don't have enough firepower on defense.
4. Baltimore (4-12) - The defense is led by aging players and they don't have a legitimate quarterback. It's going to be a long season.
AFC South
1. Indy (13-3) - Manning's health is a concern, but he'll be fine and so will the Colts.
2. Jacksonville (11-5) - They're the trendy pick this year, and they will be solid with Garrard's improvement. The Jags aren't good enough to overtake the Colts though.
3. Houston (9-7) - The Texans will come so close to the playoffs this year with a healthy Matt Schaub and an improved team overall. Next year's the year for them.
4. Tennessee (6-10) - Vince Young wants to become a star, but he needs more of a supporting class. This team will be hurt by playing in the toughest AFC division.
AFC West
1. San Diego (12-4) - Another trendy pick for 2008. The love affair is a little much, like it was last year, but Phillip Rivers is good enough to take them deep in the playoffs.
2. Broncos (7-9) - Seven wins is only possible for the Broncos because they play the Chiefs and Raiders twice. They're not seven-wins good, but the rest of the teams in the west are that bad.
3. Chiefs (5-11) - I used to love Brodie Croyle, but it's time to jump off his bandwaggon.
4. Raiders (4-12) - Jamarcus Russel is really a rookie this year, and he will face some growing pains. The Raiders will struggle with him and their defense won't bail them out.
Playoffs
Round 1 - Chargers def. Browns, Jaguars def. Steelers
Round 2 - Patriots def. Jaguars, Colts def. Chargers
AFC Champ - Patriots def. Colts
I know these playoffs resemble last season's a lot, but come on, I picked the Browns to be in the playoffs. Gimme a break here.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Ocho Cinco
Quick note before I run to work...Chad Johnson is apparently legally changing his name to Ocho Cinco.
This guy is awesome. Most of the time his antics are fun and playful (this offseason where he ripped his team and begged to be traded were the exception). Everyone says they want players who just hand the ball to the referee after a touchdown, but for me, I want the guy that has fun on the field.
Football is a game, so it is supposed to be fun. As long as your celebrations and banter don't detract from the team, I say keep it up. I can't wait to see Cinco on the back of his jersey as he runs into the endzone this year.
NL Cy Young
People didn't seem to be too thrilled with my post about the AL Cy Young race, so I figured I'd give it another shot, and discuss the NL race.
The NL has had some great pitchers this year, and there are plenty of guys who deserve to considered for the award. The pitchers include: Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, and Ryan Dempster. Now clearly, there are a few others who also worthy of consideration, but for this discussion, that is beside the point.
In my mind, the NL Cy Young race has come down to two guys: Brandon Webb and CC Sabathia.
Both guys are having amazing years. In terms of overall records, both pitchers are pretty close. In fact, based solely on overall numbers alone, Sabathia has a slight edge over Webb, as he has a slightly better ERA and about 50 more strikeouts, although Webb has had more wins and less losses.
This, however, is where things get tricky. Since coming over from the Indians, Sabathia has made 11 starts. During that stretch, he has compiled 9 wins and no losses, with a 1.43 ERA, and 85 strikeouts. Of those 9 wins, he has 3 shutouts, including a controversial one-hitter this past weekend, that very easily could have been ruled a no-hitter. These numbers are dominating.
***Editor's Note***
I have reviewed the tapes and there is no way that hit/error can be ruled routine. He had to bare-hand the ball, spin and throw a strike to first to get the runner out. An error occurs when the fielder fails to make a routine play, which this clearly was not
The question is, given the fact that he has only been a National League pitcher since early July, are Sabathia’s numbers good enough to justify a Cy Young?
Webb has been nearly as good as Sabathia, and all of his starts have come as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Should the fact that all of his success this season has come as a National Leaguer carry any weight in the Cy Young decision?
These are tough questions to answer. I don’t personally see a clear winner. I do, however, expect that when it’s all said and done, Sabathia will be awared the NL Cy Young.
The NL has had some great pitchers this year, and there are plenty of guys who deserve to considered for the award. The pitchers include: Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, and Ryan Dempster. Now clearly, there are a few others who also worthy of consideration, but for this discussion, that is beside the point.
In my mind, the NL Cy Young race has come down to two guys: Brandon Webb and CC Sabathia.
Both guys are having amazing years. In terms of overall records, both pitchers are pretty close. In fact, based solely on overall numbers alone, Sabathia has a slight edge over Webb, as he has a slightly better ERA and about 50 more strikeouts, although Webb has had more wins and less losses.
This, however, is where things get tricky. Since coming over from the Indians, Sabathia has made 11 starts. During that stretch, he has compiled 9 wins and no losses, with a 1.43 ERA, and 85 strikeouts. Of those 9 wins, he has 3 shutouts, including a controversial one-hitter this past weekend, that very easily could have been ruled a no-hitter. These numbers are dominating.
***Editor's Note***
I have reviewed the tapes and there is no way that hit/error can be ruled routine. He had to bare-hand the ball, spin and throw a strike to first to get the runner out. An error occurs when the fielder fails to make a routine play, which this clearly was not
The question is, given the fact that he has only been a National League pitcher since early July, are Sabathia’s numbers good enough to justify a Cy Young?
Webb has been nearly as good as Sabathia, and all of his starts have come as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Should the fact that all of his success this season has come as a National Leaguer carry any weight in the Cy Young decision?
These are tough questions to answer. I don’t personally see a clear winner. I do, however, expect that when it’s all said and done, Sabathia will be awared the NL Cy Young.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Flying Deltha
When the Patriots cut John Lynch loose, in what now seems to be a temporary move to avoid paying his full salary on week one, I got to wondering what they were saving the money for. At this point, what do you need the cap space for so badly if your team is set.
Well, we all found out the answer today. The Patriots signed former Bengal, former Bronco Deltha O'Neal today, in what could turn out to be a pivotal move for the 2008 season.
The defense looked old, and no one was stepping up to fill Asante Samuel's shoes. Now, O'Neal isn't exactly a young gun (31 years old), but he adds instant athleticism and experience (two pro bowls) to a secondary that was severely lacking both.
O'Neal also adds some experience to the special teams, which makes the team's decision to cut Chad Jackson loose make even more sense as well.
O'Neal has recorded at least nine interceptions in a season twice, but he has also recorded just one in three seasons, so you don't know exactly what you're gonna get. But this is a low risk potential high reward move, something the Patriots have specialized in since 2001.
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