The Truth is ... Paul Pierce is a Boston legend

We've been fortunate over the past decade to witness several ring ceremonies and banner raisings in Boston. But not one of those ever had the emotion that came with the Celtics Ring Night tonight in Boston.

Other championships carried more significance than No. 17 for the Green. The Pats ended 16 years of total failure for all New England sports, opening the flood gates for the current prosperity in Beantown. The Sox ended an 86-year draught that had captivated the region and caused such heartbreak over the years. The Celtics championship was great for ending a 22-year span of futility, but most people would not rank it ahead of Vinatieri's game-winner (twice) or Keith Foulke's underhand toss to first.

But this one was special for one reason: Paul Pierce

When the captain grabbed that championship trophy at the start of the ceremony, the tears were already flowing. By the time he came out to retrieve his ring, he was flat-out bawling. And when the Celtics raised No. 17 to the immortal rafters, he was totally overcome with emotion.

Pierce represented everything that we ask from our athletes tonight. He poured his heart and soul into a losing franchise for 10 years, never looking to be traded or to leave via free agency. We want our athletes to care as much as we do, and we're normally let down, but not by Paul Pierce. The Truth is, Pierce legitimately cares even more than the rabid Boston fan base, and that's refreshing.

Oh, and by the way, Pierce is also pretty darn good on the court too. He just passed Bob Cousy for fifth place in scoring on the all-time greatest franchise in the NBA (no debate). One day we'll remember Paul Pierce in the same light we remember Larry Bird, Carl Yastremski and Tedy Bruschi.

Every Celtics player earned their ring tonight except Scalabrine (kidding ... kind of), but none deserved it more than Pierce. 

The NBA: Where the real Big Game James plays

2008-09 NBA Finals prediction

I'm making some pretty bold predictions for this NBA season, including Miami, Portland and the Clippers sneaking into the playoffs. But somehow I made the popular finals picks of New Orleans and Boston. 

I'm ashamed of my lack of creativity and courage, but as Bill Belichick is fond of saying, "it is what it is."

So here goes: the 2008 NBA Champions will be...

1. New Orleans def. 1. Boston

Celtics fans will cheer James Posey when he comes back for the Finals, then lament his return as he hits the game-winning shot in game 7 in the Garden. The sad thing will be that no one can really get mad at him since he meant so much to the 2008-09 team.

Where 17 happens: Eastern Conference preview

And now, what you've all been waiting for ... the 2008-09 Eastern Conference Preview. The West is really just a battle for second place, as Larry Bird once said about the 3-point contest. Well, that's not entirely true, but the road to the title will have to go through one tough team from the East at some point. The West is deeper, but there may not be a better team in the league than Boston, so let the debating begin.

Stick around for the playoff predictions at the bottom ...

1. Boston – The Celtics lost their top bench player from last season in James Posey, but as important as Posey was to the team’s success, he was still a bench player. The starting five returns along with much of the bench that led them to a title. They’re still the champs until someone knocks them off.

2. Cleveland – Lebron James doesn’t have his Scottie Pippen yet, but Mo Williams is a step up over Wally (Wendy’s older brother) Szczerbiak. The King almost beat the champs last year by himself, and now he has a slightly better chance to take the next step.

3. Detroit – Don’t sleep on these guys for the same reason you shouldn’t sleep on the Spurs. They’re older and not much improved, but they’re not just going to fall off the map either after going to the conference finals last year. The core is the same, but it’s a pretty good core.

4. Toronto – Chris Bosh emerged as a legitimate superstar in the Olympics. Sure it’s a different game over here, but the world finally got to see how good this kid can be. Pair him with Jermaine O’Neal in the middle and Jose Calderon on the outside, and the Raptors have a shot.

5. Philadelphia – Elton Brand plus Andre Iguodala and a cast of strong young players equals immediate contention. It’s still tough to call the Sixers a serious title contender when Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract averages more than 15 minutes per game.

6. Orlando – While Chris Bosh emerged in Beijing, Dwight Howard looked far more human than the Superman we thought he was becoming. The Magic have some skills, but Lewis and Turkoglu are too soft to carry them if Howard has an off night.

7. Washington – Arenas is out for a while, but the Wiz actually looked like a better team at times last year without Agent Zero. If they get out to a hot start, don’t be surprised if people in D.C. tell their $100 million man to take his time coming back.

8. Miami – Dwayne Wade is back. Not to keep harping on the Olympics, but no one had a bigger coming out party than Wade, who proved he’s still a stud and can carry a team when healthy. Beaseley and Marion make up a very talented cast that’s only lacking bench depth to be a top team.

9. Atlanta – The Hawks caught the Celtics at the right time at the beginning of the playoffs last year and almost pulled the miraculous upset. They’re the real wild card this season as the progression or regression of their young players can change their fortunes drastically.

10. Chicago – The Bulls are coming off one of the most disappointing NBA seasons in recent memory. This year the expectations are far lower, but don’t expect much more from a club whose veteran players are Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden and Kirk Hinrich.

11. Charlotte – There’s enough talent here to win a few games, but there aren’t any glue guys to bring it all together. Odds on Larry Brown having heart trouble this year: 3-2.

12. Milwaukee – Richard Jefferson makes them a better team and Michael Redd is always fun to watch, but go ahead and name one more decent player on the Bucks. Joe Alexander was the most overhyped player in the draft this year so he doesn’t count. NOTE: The Bucks are so boring I incorrectly had them listed on the Western Conference preview yesterday and Angry Craig didn’t even comment to make fun of me.

13. Indiana – Roy Hibbert’s supposed to get me excited for this season? Sorry Pacers fans, this one’s going to take a while to rebuild.

14. New York – Isiah is still on the payroll even if he’s not the coach or GM anymore, which is good enough reason to put them near the bottom of the East.

15. New Jersey/Brooklyn – Can the Nets just come out and say that they’re openly positioning themselves for a run at Lebron when his contract is up? Keep trading away your best assets N.J. and see how much the King wants to play for a loser. Hey, at least you still have Jay-Z.

ROUND 1
1. Boston def. 8. Miami

2. Cleveland def. 7. Washington

6. Orlando def. 3. Detroit

5. Philadelphia def. 4. Toronto

ROUND 2
1. Boston def. 5. Philadelphia

2. Cleveland def. 6. Orlando

EASTERN FINALS
1. Boston def. 2. Cleveland

Western Conference outlook part 2

It's pretty pointless to pick playoff winners in October, but it's also pretty fun. Considering I picked the Tennessee Titans to win six games this year (they're 7-0), my predictions need to be taken with a truck-full of salt. But hey, it's always fun to look back after the fact and realize how dumb you were.

So here goes...

ROUND 1
1. New Orleans def. 8. LA Clippers

2. LA Lakers def. 7. Portland

3. Houston def. 6. Phoenix

5. San Antonio def. 4. Utah

ROUND 2
1. New Orleans def. 5. San Antonio

2. LA Lakers def. 3. Houston

WEST FINALS
1. New Orleans def. 2. LA Lakers

Let the criticism begin

The NBA: Where meaningless fall games happen

We’re just about 24 hours away from Banner 17 night at the TD Banknorth Garden, and it’s time to start looking ahead at the 2008-09 season. This night couldn’t come at a more perfect time, with baseball season at a close in Boston and the Patriots showing promise, but still probably a piece or two short of being a Super Bowl team.

For the first time in probably two decades, it’s time to get legitimately excited for the start of the NBA season.

Let’s start it out with a little Western Conference preview for the upcoming season.

1. New Orleans – The Hornets were just about as talented as the Lakers last year, led by their superstar Chris Paul (who is still only 23) and a strong cast of young players. All they really lacked was a veteran role player to add into the mix. Cue James Posey who seems to bring championships to every team he goes to. They’re the team to beat in the West.

2. Los Angeles – The best team in the West last year brings back it’s core and adds budding star Andrew Bynum back into the mix. Why no more love than second? It’s because they looked so soft in the playoffs and history shows us that tough teams (see Detroit, San Antonio and Boston) get it done in the clutch.

3. Houston – The Rockets have a big three now too, and it’s a pretty solid crew. Last year they made a run with just a banged up McGrady; now they get Yao back from injury and one of the best grinders in the game in Ron Artest. Rafer Alston is the key just like Rondo was the key for the Celtics last year.

4. Utah – The Jazz have a great foundation with Boozer and Williams as their stars. They have the support pieces with Kirilenko and Harpring to go with them as well. Plus, any team that employs Gerry McNamara is OK by me. NOTE: if the Jazz cut G-Mac by the start of the season they will drop to six in the rankings. The man’s a winner.

5. San Antonio – Ginobli’s out for the opening portion of the season and they appear to be getting a little older. Strangely though, Manu’s injury may be a blessing when he’s healthy and rested come playoff time. Don’t count this bunch out ever.

6. Phoenix – This is how tough the West is this year: a team with a healthy Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash is the sixth best in the conference. This team is legitimately very good, but it’s tough to put them any higher based on the competition.

7. Portland – The Blazers went from one of the worst teams in the league to a .500 team in the toughest conference ever. Now they add Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez to the mix. Fortunately for them, this team is too young to be intimidated by the competition.

8. Los Angeles Clippers – No Elton Brand this year, but the Clippers at least added Baron Davis and Marcus Camby. Eric Gordon and Davis should make up a tough backcourt and Camby and Al Thornton will be beasts down low. This team has a real shot at breaking the playoff drought.

9. Dallas – The Mavs are slipping. Dirk has not been the same stone-cold killer since the Mavs lost in the Finals in ’06 and Jason Kidd is a shell of himself. They’ll still put up some numbers and win some games, but they’re run as a title contender is over.

10. Denver – The Nuggets didn’t play any defense last year, so what do they do? Trade away their best defensive player (Marcus Camby). They could average 140 points per game this year and still finish below .500.

11. Oklahoma City – In the words of one Jim Calhoun, “They’re not bad.” Believe it or not the Franchise Stealers…er…Thunder could be half decent this year. Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and a passionate fan base should make them anything but a guaranteed win for opponents.

12. Minnesota – The T-Wolves are better than you may think. Al Jefferson is a budding star and the bizzarro Celtics should be able to build around him and Ryan Gomes in the future. If Kevin Love can stay on the floor the Wolves will win a few games this year.

13. Memphis - They can fly with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and the Hack Man Warrick, but can they play? They'll at least be the most fun bad team to watch (if that makes sense).

14. Golden State – Baron Davis is gone and Monta Ellis is out indefinitely. It’s hard to find something positive coming out of Oakland this year.

15. Sacramento – Donte Green could be the best player on this team by the end of the season. Enough said.

Who's beeper keep beepin and beepin?

Yeah, that's right, it's Monday (in case the ESPN commercials didn't remind you already), which means it's time to recap some football action.

Has anyone noticed that the Patriots are currently in first place in the AFC East, and they lay claim to the second-best record in the AFC? Raise your hand if you thought that was a possibility in the second quarter of Week 1.

NOTE: If you're raising your hand, you're a dirty liar.

The knock on this 5-2 record thus far is with the schedule. The Pats squeaked out close wins over the Rams, 49ers and the Chiefs. They beat up on an overrated Denver team that lost it's only defensive playmaker during the game. The only "good win" came against the Jets, who were struggling to adjust to a new quarterback at the time.

When it comes down to it, there is no BCS in the NFL. Wins count the same whether they are against first-place or last-place teams. If you get 10 wins against the worst teams in the league, you're still probably going to the playoffs.

This season reminds me a lot of 2001, not just because of the new quarterback situation, but because of the lack of expectations. When Brady went down, the hopes went from Super Bowl Champion to winning five games.

Now, the expectations are a little higher, but only the biggest yahoos think this team will be raising the Lombardi trophy at the end of the year. As far as I'm concerned, every win from now on is a bonus, and that makes things pretty entertaining. This Patriots team simply can't let me down because they already have achieved more than I thought they were. If they get to six wins, I'll be pleased. If they get to 10, I'll be very pleased. If they win a playoff game I'll be ecstatic. If they win the Super Bowl I may cry with joy.

New England's time on the top of the football world has ended (for now), and Pats fans everywhere need to take a different perspective into a football season. It's kind of refreshing, but hopefully they'll restore Patriots fans to their arrogant, pompous selves next season.

Looking forward

Now that we've gotten all the niceties out of the way, it's time to look ahead to the 2009 season. Baseball is a business, and it's time to cut out all the personal feelings and look at what moves will make this Red Sox team a contender next season.

A lot has been made in this space about how the 2008 Red Sox were pretty similar to the 2007 Red Sox. The core of the team remained the same, but there were enough differences that they were unable to repeat the end result.

Part of it was simply facing a better ballclub in the Tampa Bay Rays, but part of it comes down to the flaws in the structure of the '08 team.

Let's start with the strengths of the team. These are the areas that are solidified for the Red Sox moving forward.

Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - These two have supplanted Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz as the most important duo for the Boston Red Sox. The best part is that both players are young and affordable for the time being. This is the new foundation on which the Sox will build going forward.

Jonathan Papelbon and Justin Masterson - The back end of the bullpen was phenomenal throughout the regular season and postseason. Hopefully the overuse in October won't affect them next season.

Jon Lester and Dice-K - If Beckett can return to form, the Red Sox will have the best 1-2-3 punch in all of baseball next year.

Jason Bay - He's no Manny at the plate, but he's pretty darn good, and he did more things in the field and on the basepaths than Ramirez ever did.

Now let's take a glance at the places the Sox need to work on during this offseason

Fourth and fifth starter - I'm sorry but it's time for Tim Wakefield to go. He's always been considered an innings eater, but Wake hasn't sniffed 200 innings since 2005. Plus, having Wakefield in the rotation continues to retard the progress of the young Red Sox catchers because he requires a personal backstop. The Sox don't need to make a huge free agent splash here, but they need more depth at the back of the rotation. CC Sabathia isn't the answer, but Derek Lowe may be.

Catcher - Jason Varitek hit the game-winning home run in game six, but remember that was his only hit of the season. He left 16 runners on base, including two big ones in the seventh inning of game seven. 'Tek just doesn't look like a big-league hitter any more, and his leadership qualities don't drive in any of the big runs. Let's face it, if the Red Sox simply had a catcher that batted .100 for the ALCS, they would likely be preparing for the Phillies right now.

Middle Relief - This is always the hardest area to fix because middle relievers come and go every year. Mike Timlin will likely retire and it's time we start looking at Manny Delcarmen as the mediocre reliever he is. This is an area that must be addressed via free agency this offseason.

Bench - Jed Lowrie is more of a utility player than starting shortstop (despite all my gushing in August over him). That means Alex Cora is expendable this year. Sean Casey was useless on the bench, and it showed in Francona's lack of willingness to play the veteran late in games. The Sox need another outfielder (to replace Kotsay) and a bat with some pop (to do better than Casey). The '04 team had Gabe Kapler, the '07 team had Bobby Kielty and the '08 team had Mark Kotsay. But that was the difference as Kotsay was forced to start and the Sox lost a valuable bat off their bench.

Shortstop - With Lowrie ideally on the bench, the Sox need to address this position in the offseason. Any trade with Julio Lugo will involve Boston eating most of his salary, so a move may not be practical. An improvement in the lineup here would make a big difference overall though.

You can't win 'em all

OK, so I hope by now you figured out my plan for reverse jinxing the Sox in the playoffs. I guess it didn't pan out exactly how I hoped. Maybe the powers that be started to notice the lack of sincerity in my Rays predictions. Maybe if you make enough predictions you are bound to be right ... even when the goal is to be wrong.

Regardless, this season didn't have the storybook ending Sox fans were hoping for, and it's hard to call the 2008 campaign anything less than a failure. Sorry to be so frank, but whenever you bring back nearly every part of a World Series Championship team, anything less than winning the title again has to be considered a failure.

But the thing is, not all failures are miserable. Sure, the Sox didn't get the job done in 2008, but it wasn't for lack of effort.

Had the series ended in game five, as it looked like it would, we would be looking at this 2008 team in a totally different light. Traling by seven runs late in the contest, the only word I could use to describe the feeling was disappointment. Disappointment at what seemed to be lack of effort from the home team when it was up against the ropes. Disappointment at Sox pitchers for not buzzing a Rays hitter to make them uncomfortable at the plate. Disappointment at the Sox boppers for looking afraid to step up in a big situation. Disappointment at a team that was underachieving.

Then the miracle happened. Game five showed us that this Sox team actually did have some fight left. A team that was ravaged by injuries poured every last drop of sweat onto the field for the next three games and made us all believe they could pull off the impossible ... again.

Not every story has a fairy tale ending. Unfortunately, this one did, only it was the Rays, not the Red Sox, who played the role of the hero this time.

At the opening of the season the goal was obvious: win the World Series. By midseason it was just to survive Manny and his soap opera. By September it was to fight and claw into the playoffs despite all the injuries. And in the postseason, it was just to live to fight another day.

When we look back at 2008 years from now, we will remember one thing: that they lost in the ALCS. Unfortunately that's the way all teams are judged, and few will remember all the details when all they have left are the box scores.

But I'm not disappointed in these Red Sox. Their top slugger was injured for the majority of the season. Their ace wasn't the same in the second half. Their Hall of Fame cleanup hitter shot his way out of town. Their World Series MVP from 2007 missed almost all of the playoffs. Their sweet-swinging right fielder played through a back injury that would have put him on the DL in the regular season.

That's not to say the Rays didn't deserve to win. They had their injuries too - see Troy Percival - but they were just a little younger, a little more athletic and a little more talented (believe it or not). They earned their place in the World Series.

But the Red Sox did their job for as long as they could. They overcame more adversity than any of us expected them to face, and they showed the type of heart and grit Boston fans always crave out of their teams.

This isn't Little League, so there are no gold stars to give them for the 2008 campaign. It was a failure in the grand scheme of things, but at least it was fun to watch.

The game of games

There really is nothing like a good game seven. The Sox are 2-1 in my adult life with two amazing wins and one miserable loss. It's the peak of an emotional rollercoaster, and it will make or break the way you feel about your team for the next several months.

Let's think back to last year, when Kenny Lofton was rounding third base and was ready to score the tying run. The sky was falling, the end of the world was upon us, the Red Sox had reverted back to chokers.

Flash forward one inning: Lofton was mysteriously held at third base, and the Indians had grounded into an inning-ending double play. One pitch later, Dustin Pedroia took that tiny frame and blasted a back-breaking home run. Suddenly the Sox are the kings of clutch and the class of MLB. 

That's how close game sevens are.

And that's how close it will be tonight. You can talk all you want about momentum, but this Boston team is spent. Papelbon is a big question mark after he's been overused (justifiably) throughout the playoffs. The injuries to Lowell and Drew and Ortiz have got to catch up eventually.

The Rays will win, but it will be that close again. That game-winning catwalk homer is coming, and Chip Carey better rehearse his confused home run call.

Yogi was right

It really ain't over 'til it's over. Game five wasn't over until J.D. Drew drove home the winning run in the bottom of the ninth in a miracle comeback at Fenway, and this ALCS won't be over - despite what so many of us (including me) thought - until the final out is recorded.

In case you haven't heard, Drew's double came exactly five years (to the minute) after Aaron Boone's home run doomed the 2003 Red Sox. This is an interesting parallel to draw, considering how much things have changed in five short years.

At that moment in 2003, all was lost. The Yankees could not lose and the Red Sox could not win. We were all haunted by these facts on a daily basis, and it seemed as if we would never see a World Series title in our lifetimes.

Flash forward exactly five years: suddenly it is the Red Sox who know how to come through in clutch situations. If you told anyone the Sox would be the champions of clutch five years after Boone gave all Boston fans the proverbial kick to the groin, they would have laughed in your face.

But this is the world we live in now. The Red Sox are the never-say-die team. They have history on their side, and they know how to find ways to win. The ghosts of Fenway are suddenly more powerful than the ghosts of Yankees Stadium (who knows if they will follow the club across the street next year?).

It's a great time to be a Sox fan. They'll probably still lose in games 6 or 7, but at least the season is still alive. And no matter what, this team will know that they can win any game, at any time, no matter what. Even if the most die-hard Red Sox fans think they are done.

It all comes down to this

Here we are...again. The Sox have their backs against the wall, and they need to win three in a row to move on to the World Series. They were successful in this situation twice in the last four seasons, so many fans have reason to be optimistic.

But most aren't so glass half full today. The fact is, the Rays have clearly been the better team for the past four games. They've outpitched and outhit the Red Sox at the Trop and the Fens. They pulled out a clutch extra-inning win, and they showed their strength by blowing out two games in Fenway.

Last year the Red Sox lost an extra inning game two to Cleveland, extremely similar to this year's loss. Only games three and four weren't anything like the beatdowns delivered by the Rays in this postseason. Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook frustrated the Boston hitters, but you just got the feeling that they were all due to break out. When it all came together, I was surprised, but not totally shocked.

You just can't say the same thing about this team. They're banged up, with Lowell out, and Ortiz and Drew clearly struggling. Ellsbury has been the opposite of a spark plug, and Sean Casey and Mike Timlin are basically dead roster spots at this point. Josh Beckett is showing signs of mortality as the injuries from the long season seem to have caught up to him at the worst time. And Jon Lester had his first slipup of the postseason in game three and he may not get a chance to redeem himself.

The only players who the Red Sox can count on are Dustin Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon. Unfortunately, Pedroia is more of a run scorer than a run producer - which isn't too helpful if the guys behind you are struggling - and Papelbon can't change games when his team is down 17 runs before the third inning.

Is it over yet? Not by a long shot. I learned long ago that you can count out the Red Sox at your own risk. But the odds are strongly against this team winning the World Series, and unlike in 2007, I would be completely shocked if they got there.

Curb your enthusiasm

What's with the lack of enthusiasm here at The Card? The Red Sox are three wins away from the World Series, or three losses away from going home like everyone else. This should be the most exciting time of the year.

But it isn't.

Here's a text from Phil the Tank from game one that sums up the feeling of the series: "This game is so weird...doesn't feel like the ALCS at all because we are at Tampa."

Now this isn't to say the Rays are not deserving of their place in the ALCS. They earned it by holding off the Red Sox and Yankees in the highest-priced division in baseball on a payroll the size of A-Rod's mortgate payments. They're good, and they're getting better.

Maybe it's the venue, and we've discussed how ridiculous it is to play meaningful games in a wiffle ball park before. But it's hard to get amped up for playoff games in Tampa even if the Red Sox are involved.

Maybe the other part is that most everyone agrees this series will be decided in games six or seven, so an initial split didn't come as much of a surprise. It's like everyone is just treading water until those later games decide everything.

Maybe the bright lights of an outdoor park with some history will rejuvinate the series - though a marathon game two was a good (and bad) first step. Maybe I just miss seeing people bundled in jackets cheering on their team.

Maybe Tampa is building it's own history right now, and it won't be so weird when the Rays are a mainstay in the playoffs. But maybe the Red Sox are just lulling everyone to sleep, and the defending champs will break out with a dominating performance at the Fens.

Let's hope.

Big Brown to retire

ALERT - BONUS HORSE RACING COVERAGE

Big Brown is set to retire, according to ESPN. No word yet on whether he will cry at the press conference before returning to racing with a different trainer and owner.

The morning (afternoon) after

I know I've been slacking off a little on the blog lately, so expect two action-packed posts today (no promises though). There has been a lot of neglect on the baseball front (explanation later today), but let's attack this tackle football game everyone seems so fond of first.

Some quick observations from yesterday's action:

Tom Brady should be named MVP again
Watching Matt Cassel play quarterback for the Patriots makes me realize just how great Tom Brady really is. We have come to expect certain throws and plays to be made, and Cassel just can't seem to get them done. I'm not surprised he can't hit on the deep ball, but what really makes me miss Tom is the difference in accuracy on the short ones. This is going to be a long season.

Randy Moss is showing signs of the old Randy
Key moment: on the first drive of the game, Randy Moss broke free down the right sideline and should have been wide open for an easy touchdown pass. Matt Cassel didn't put enough juice on the pass and Moss had to slow up. The problem: he still could have caught the ball, but he made absolutely no effort to do so, letting it glance off his fingertips (which were about waist high). Sure, if Brady is there, the ball is waiting in the end zone for him to go get it, but if Tom underthrew the pass, odds are Moss would have jumped up and bailed him out.

Speeding Bullitt
Is there a cooler name for an NFL safety than Melvin Bullitt? OK the whole Melvin thing hurts his case, but the way Bullitt cuts through the offense and sticks ball carriers, he's living up to his name.

Whacky Brett
Apparently it's funny when Brett Favre doesn't know the audibles and has to waste a fourth-quarter timeout in a six-point game (at the time). The announcers would have ripped Ryan Fitzpatrick as being inexperienced if he did the same thing, but Brett's just "having a good time out there."

Parity returns
In 2002, parity was the buzzword of the year. Almost every team was in the hunt going into the final two weeks of the season, and there was no clear-cut Super Bowl favorite. Pundits mused that there would never be an NFL dynasty again. Cut to 2003-04 Patriots repeat champions, and parity disappeared. But in case you haven't noticed, every division is virtually up for grabs at this early part of the season. The Giants are the class of the league, but they play in the toughest division in football, so if they lost 3/4 it wouldn't surprise anyone.

Ground rules

Can we talk about the fact that meaningful games are being played in a wiffle ball stadium?

It used to be kind of funny when a Kansas City Royal would hit a pop fly off a catwalk in a June game that had no bearing on the standings. But a lot has changed this year, and in case you haven't noticed, the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays are just four wins away from the World Series.

There's a good chance the Rays will have to play four games in the juice box that is Tropicana Field to get to the pinnacle of the sport. That means the series could potentially turn on one of the 724 ground rules regarding catwalks, ceilings or whatever crazy junk comes off that ridiculous domed roof.

Nothing says intant baseball classic like Chip Carey announcing this gem, "Pena swings and drives one to left field, Bay going back...and...it...is...wait, what happened? It's off the catwalk. Is it gone? Is it a double? Is it an out? The umpires are conferring...and it's a home run! The Rays are going to the World Series...but they don't know it yet."

There's an 87 percent chance Jack Buck will roll over in his grave before this series is over.

Back to business

The smell of champagne probably still lingers on Kenmore Street, but now it's time to get back to business. Let's take a look ahead at what this next series looks like for the Red Sox.

Pitching will be the key - as it always is - and the Red Sox have some questions to answer going into the series. So let's answer them, as well as we can.

Will Josh Beckett be Josh Beckett?
Will he be the greatest pitcher in postseason history, like he has been in the past? It's possible. Will he be as inconsistent as he was in game three of the Angels series? It's also possible, mut not as likely. The best bet is Beckett will be somewhere in between: a little more sharp, but probably not as dominant as he has been in the past. The Red Sox will be happy to see him take the mound in a clutch situation.

Has Papelbon been overworked?
Fortunately, the answer to this one is probably not. Francona did a great job of keeping Paps out of the game on Monday night, and now he has almost a week to rest before game one in Tampa. Papelbon loves these moments, and he's peaking at the perfect time.

Can Dice-K go six innings?
He has to. It's that simple. The bullpen is weak once you get past Papelbon and Masterson, so they can't afford to stretch both of them out in every game. If Matsuzaka can give the team quality innings and go relatively deep into the game, they will have a much greater chance of winning the series, regardless of the result in the games he pitches.

Who will be the fourth starter?
The safe money is on Tim Wakefield. He's been on the team for about 72 years and hasn't been a consistent bullpen contributor since the Great Depression. The Sox can also start Kevin Cash when he goes, as opposed to subbing for a pitcher and Varitek if Wakefield comes out of the 'pen. Paul Byrd will be on call when Wake starts in case he needs to fill in innings.

How will the rotation break down?
I don't know how it will break down, but here's a good guess of how it should break down. Beckett should go in game one for the Sox. He's still the team's ace and if he gives them 75 percent of what he's capable of, Boston has a great chance to win the opener. Lester should pitch game two on normal rest because he has been the best starter all year and he is developing into a phenomenal postseason pitcher as well. Matsuzaka can go in game three on longer rest at Fenway. Wakefield bridges the gap to the top of the rotation for the later games. With the random off day between games four and five, this gives the Sox the option to move up both Lester and Dice-K if Beckett truly is hurt for games five and six respectively.

Prediction: Rays in seven (see previous series predictions)

Moving on

Well, it wasn't easy, but the Sox will live to see another day. And believe it or not, it's only going to get tougher from here.

Before we move on to Tampa let's look back on the series that was...

The Angels could have easily won this series. One bad pitch from Lackey to Bay in game one. One bad pitch from K-Rod to drew in game two. One missed bunt from Aybar in game four. Really, when you look at it, it was those three plays that changed the series. The Red Sox executed more than the Angels, and that's why they're still alive.

Top peformers: Jason Bay - Two monster home runs and a big double last night. He seemed to be a key member in all the big plays for the Sox.
Jonathan Papelbon - Three games, no runs, dominating performances. Hopefully that hangover wears off before Friday.
Jon Lester - Unbelieveable job by this not-so-young-anymore kid. Lester has now thrown 23.1 innings in the postseason and given up TWO EARNED RUNS. That's a 0.77 ERA in case you were wondering. With him and Josh Beckett in a playoff rotation for years to come, the Red Sox will be tough to beat.

Goats: Eric Aybar - All he had to do was put the bat on the ball. As soon as the squeeze play failed, the momentum went over to the Red Sox for good.
Vlad Guerrero - Sure he batted .467, but no RBI and on extra base hit. Not the type of pop you hope for from a cleanup hitter. Extra deductions for a baserunning blunder that sealed the loss in game one.
Francisco Rodriguez - This is a little harsh to call him a goat because he really only made one bad pitch (and made several great pitches in game three), but any time you give up a game-winning home run in the ninth inning of a short series, you're going to be one of the goats.

Needs improvement: Dustin Pedroia - Showed life with a double in game four (his only hit). The Sox need that to carry over into the ALCS.
Dice-K - Needs to throw strikes and go more than five innings in the next round. He crippled the bullpen in game two, and that cost the team in game three.
Josh Beckett - Obviously he was disappointed with his game three performance, but the Sox will rely on him to come through in the next round.

Fill it up again!

The Red Sox brought back almost their entire team from last year's World Series champions. Tonight, Jed Lowrie drove in Jason Bay for the game-winning run; two guys who weren't on that roster. That's why you can never get comfortable with a team, and that's why the Red Sox front office is one of the best in baseball.

More to come tomorrow. These long nights are taking a toll.

Head games

No beating around the bush today. We all know last night was a big win for the Sox, and the momentum has jumped completely to their side heading forward in the short series.

Here are some quick thoughts about last night's Game 1 thriller.

It was over when...
Vlad Guerrero tried to go from first to third on a bloop single and was thrown out by about 20 feet. Great play by Youkilis to come up throwing. Bad play by Vladdy being too aggressive. It sucked the wind out of the Angels sails and killed their last rally chance before it got started.

"Not here to talk about the past"
I don't like to put much stock into history when it comes to a series, which is why I picked the Angels to win in four. But with so many players left over from '04 and '07, it must be hard for Halos to ignore the past. Heading into last night the Angels had the better team on paper, they weren't facing Beckett, Lackey had shown he could beat the Sox with a near no-hitter this season and they were at home as a 100-win team. They should have won, but they found a way to lose ... again. There has to be the feeling of "here we go again" running through that clubhouse today.

Quote of the night
From loyal reader Phil DeGuglielmo: "Poor Lowell looks like an old softball vet fighting through pain."

It's true. Lowell looks like a shell of himself out there, and it's sad to see. But it's also inspiring to see him gut it out, and if he can give the Sox anything, they will be grateful.

But the player who really looks pathetic out there is Vlad Guerrero. Not to keep harping on that first-to-third play, but wasn't Guerrero one of the best baserunners in the game just a few years ago. I've never seen someone get so old so fast. The man that was once a lock to steal 30 bases now looks like a 60-year-old who should probably have a walker on the basepaths. Supposedly he's only 32, but that's in Dominican years.

Bay State
Jason Bay made Theo Epstein look like a genius last night. Every day that trade looks better, even though Manny continues to rake in L.A. (including a ridiculous home run from his shoetops last night). Not only has Bay fit in seemlessly in Boston, Craig Hansen put up a 7.47 ERA before being sent to the minors and Brandon Moss hit a robust .222 in Pittsburgh. Sorry Theo, how dare I doubt you?

Mr. dew knee nuh
OK so that's just the phonetic spelling, and it's in Cherokee (Jacoby Ellsbury is of Navajo decent), but it's harder than it looks to find some of this stuff online. Please comment if you know how to say Mr. October in the Navajo language.

The point is, Ellsbury finds a way to make amazing things happen in October. He made a name for himself by having one of the best World Series by a rookie in history last year. Now, after a solid (although not meeting the ridiculous expectations set for him) full rookie season, Ellsbury has turned it up again on the big stage. Last night, he got on base every time he was up, made a huge diving catch and stole two bases. He finds so many ways to change a game, and this is his time to shine.

Josh who?
Well, I still missed Josh Beckett last night, but not for long. Jon Lester is starting to show that he too can pitch well under pressure. After being the real Red Sox ace all year (sorry Dice-K, you gotta go more than 5 per start to earn that title), Lester shut down the door with a 7-inning performance without allowing an earned run. He was dominant, he was exciting, he was everything Beckett has been in the past.

In his short postseason career, Lester has now pitched 16.1 innings, started two games, won two games and allowed just two earned runs. If you're keeping score at home (or at work), that's a 2-0 record with a 1.10 ERA. If Beckett can pitch half as well as Lester in game three, this series shouldn't make it back to Anaheim.

There's only one October...

...per year. There's also only one April, but who's counting anyways?

But this really is the most exciting time of the year. There are only eight teams left and they've all played 162 games (at least), but they all could be going home after just three more. Sometimes the playoffs can just crush you so fast (remember when the Red Sox fell behind the A's by two in less than 48 hours in 2003?), but they can also give you so much joy (2004).

Heading into this Red Sox/Angels series I have to say, I'm not liking the way the Sox stack up. This time, the Beantown boys are the ones that are banged up like the Angels were last year. Josh Beckett's health is a major concern. So is J.D. Drew's and Mike Lowell's.

The Los Angeles/Aneheim/California Angels have the more consistent pitching staff and probably the better bullpen. The Angels have the big boppers they've lacked in the past (Torii Hunter and Mark Texiera) and they have that blazing speed and tremendous fielding ability once again.

On paper, the Angels have to be big-time favorites here. And I'm going with the paper this time, so my prediction is Angels in four.

I just think the Sox will split the two games in LA/Anaheim, then return home and put the series on Beckett's shoulders. He will not be able to come through this year because he's hurt, and the Sox will be up against the ropes. Smelling blood, the Angels will actually be able to close out a series for the first time in recent memory.

NOTE: In 2006, I picked the Yankees, Twins, Dodgers and Padres to win their respective series. Then I picked the A's and Mets to meet in the World Series. Finally I picked the Detroit Tigers to take the crown when they played the Cardinals in the Series. If you're keeping score at home, that's an 0-7 record. Hopefully I have that kind of luck this year.

Other series predictions - Phillies in 3, Dodgers in 5, Rays in 4.