Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Back to business

The smell of champagne probably still lingers on Kenmore Street, but now it's time to get back to business. Let's take a look ahead at what this next series looks like for the Red Sox.

Pitching will be the key - as it always is - and the Red Sox have some questions to answer going into the series. So let's answer them, as well as we can.

Will Josh Beckett be Josh Beckett?
Will he be the greatest pitcher in postseason history, like he has been in the past? It's possible. Will he be as inconsistent as he was in game three of the Angels series? It's also possible, mut not as likely. The best bet is Beckett will be somewhere in between: a little more sharp, but probably not as dominant as he has been in the past. The Red Sox will be happy to see him take the mound in a clutch situation.

Has Papelbon been overworked?
Fortunately, the answer to this one is probably not. Francona did a great job of keeping Paps out of the game on Monday night, and now he has almost a week to rest before game one in Tampa. Papelbon loves these moments, and he's peaking at the perfect time.

Can Dice-K go six innings?
He has to. It's that simple. The bullpen is weak once you get past Papelbon and Masterson, so they can't afford to stretch both of them out in every game. If Matsuzaka can give the team quality innings and go relatively deep into the game, they will have a much greater chance of winning the series, regardless of the result in the games he pitches.

Who will be the fourth starter?
The safe money is on Tim Wakefield. He's been on the team for about 72 years and hasn't been a consistent bullpen contributor since the Great Depression. The Sox can also start Kevin Cash when he goes, as opposed to subbing for a pitcher and Varitek if Wakefield comes out of the 'pen. Paul Byrd will be on call when Wake starts in case he needs to fill in innings.

How will the rotation break down?
I don't know how it will break down, but here's a good guess of how it should break down. Beckett should go in game one for the Sox. He's still the team's ace and if he gives them 75 percent of what he's capable of, Boston has a great chance to win the opener. Lester should pitch game two on normal rest because he has been the best starter all year and he is developing into a phenomenal postseason pitcher as well. Matsuzaka can go in game three on longer rest at Fenway. Wakefield bridges the gap to the top of the rotation for the later games. With the random off day between games four and five, this gives the Sox the option to move up both Lester and Dice-K if Beckett truly is hurt for games five and six respectively.

Prediction: Rays in seven (see previous series predictions)

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