Monday, October 20, 2008

Looking forward

Now that we've gotten all the niceties out of the way, it's time to look ahead to the 2009 season. Baseball is a business, and it's time to cut out all the personal feelings and look at what moves will make this Red Sox team a contender next season.

A lot has been made in this space about how the 2008 Red Sox were pretty similar to the 2007 Red Sox. The core of the team remained the same, but there were enough differences that they were unable to repeat the end result.

Part of it was simply facing a better ballclub in the Tampa Bay Rays, but part of it comes down to the flaws in the structure of the '08 team.

Let's start with the strengths of the team. These are the areas that are solidified for the Red Sox moving forward.

Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - These two have supplanted Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz as the most important duo for the Boston Red Sox. The best part is that both players are young and affordable for the time being. This is the new foundation on which the Sox will build going forward.

Jonathan Papelbon and Justin Masterson - The back end of the bullpen was phenomenal throughout the regular season and postseason. Hopefully the overuse in October won't affect them next season.

Jon Lester and Dice-K - If Beckett can return to form, the Red Sox will have the best 1-2-3 punch in all of baseball next year.

Jason Bay - He's no Manny at the plate, but he's pretty darn good, and he did more things in the field and on the basepaths than Ramirez ever did.

Now let's take a glance at the places the Sox need to work on during this offseason

Fourth and fifth starter - I'm sorry but it's time for Tim Wakefield to go. He's always been considered an innings eater, but Wake hasn't sniffed 200 innings since 2005. Plus, having Wakefield in the rotation continues to retard the progress of the young Red Sox catchers because he requires a personal backstop. The Sox don't need to make a huge free agent splash here, but they need more depth at the back of the rotation. CC Sabathia isn't the answer, but Derek Lowe may be.

Catcher - Jason Varitek hit the game-winning home run in game six, but remember that was his only hit of the season. He left 16 runners on base, including two big ones in the seventh inning of game seven. 'Tek just doesn't look like a big-league hitter any more, and his leadership qualities don't drive in any of the big runs. Let's face it, if the Red Sox simply had a catcher that batted .100 for the ALCS, they would likely be preparing for the Phillies right now.

Middle Relief - This is always the hardest area to fix because middle relievers come and go every year. Mike Timlin will likely retire and it's time we start looking at Manny Delcarmen as the mediocre reliever he is. This is an area that must be addressed via free agency this offseason.

Bench - Jed Lowrie is more of a utility player than starting shortstop (despite all my gushing in August over him). That means Alex Cora is expendable this year. Sean Casey was useless on the bench, and it showed in Francona's lack of willingness to play the veteran late in games. The Sox need another outfielder (to replace Kotsay) and a bat with some pop (to do better than Casey). The '04 team had Gabe Kapler, the '07 team had Bobby Kielty and the '08 team had Mark Kotsay. But that was the difference as Kotsay was forced to start and the Sox lost a valuable bat off their bench.

Shortstop - With Lowrie ideally on the bench, the Sox need to address this position in the offseason. Any trade with Julio Lugo will involve Boston eating most of his salary, so a move may not be practical. An improvement in the lineup here would make a big difference overall though.

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